<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
    <title>Palliser Business Commentary</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/" />
    <link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/atom.xml" />
   <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2011:/tips/2</id>
    <link rel="service.post" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2" title="Palliser Business Commentary" />
    <updated>2011-11-30T01:46:28Z</updated>
    
    <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type 3.2</generator>
 
<entry>
    <title>Palliser Report - South American Diggers 2011 Conference in Sydney on November 17th and 18th 2011.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2011/11/palliser_report_south_american.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=39" title="Palliser Report - South American Diggers 2011 Conference in Sydney on November 17th and 18th 2011." />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2011:/tips//2.39</id>
    
    <published>2011-11-29T06:54:59Z</published>
    <updated>2011-11-30T01:46:28Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The Palliser Report is a compilation of the discussions and views expressed at this Diggers Resource Conference and the observations of the Palliser Group. a. South American Diggers Conference: This Resource Conference was one of the first in Australia to...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="Business Commentary" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The Palliser Report is a compilation of the discussions and views expressed at this Diggers Resource Conference and the observations of the Palliser Group.</p>

<p>a.	<strong>South American Diggers Conference: T</strong>his Resource Conference was one of the first in Australia to focus on the resource issues in South America- its potential, its economies and the business opportunities.  It had <em><strong>important representation for the Ambassadors</strong></em> from Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Mexico and Chile who gave passionate presentations about their respective countries dealing with legacy issues and perceptions. They "show cased" the potential, economic and political performance and confronted the perceptions of problems in governance, economics and structural reform.<br />
<em> <strong>Company testimonials</strong> </em>provided very positive examples of resource potential, commerciality & success and how to operate with "in-country" management and expertise to maximise the success of the venture. <br />
Currently there is no "appetite" for funding resource developments in Latin America from Australian markets. However there are some companies which have the potential to provide exploitation results that will start to change investor attitudes.<br />
As noted in the discussion on capital markets, it  is only within the last 3 years that investor attitude to funding via ASX listings in West African resource developments has changed  to the point where  the ASX and AIM(UK) now provide about 50% each of the equity capital for African mineral developments  by Australian companies. This change occurred based on successful exploitation campaigns of Australian companies that have resonated well with these capital markets to generate some investor confidence.<br />
b.	<strong>Conference Focus</strong>: The Conference highlighted the advances in the area (South America) in terms of leadership role in resource exploitation during the last decade underpinned by advances in national economic performance, improved government regulation and an acknowledgement of the substantial resource potential in copper, iron ore, zinc/silver, coal, gold and precious metals. <br />
<strong>Latin America is highly prospective,</strong> underpinned by attracting about 26% of global resource exploitation budgets in 2010 (Australia 13%).<br />
Latin America from Mexico to Chile is considered a resource rich province with some of the regions vastly underexplored.  Estimates suggest that only 30% of the landmass of Brazil, 1.4% of Peru and 51% of Colombia has been actively explored for resource wealth. There are continuing opportunities for successful exploitation strategies.<br />
Mining strategies for Peru, Chile and Brazil aim to attract the multinational to develop their resources while Mexico and Colombia are encouraging mid-size companies to participate in their resource development with the objective of maximising development through diversity of companies and ideas.<br />
c.	<strong>Changing attitudes: </strong>An important part of the Conference theme related to the focus on <em><strong>all stakeholder considerations </strong></em>when doing business there. It is the expected norm for business behaviour to exploit permits and discoveries employing an active community consultation process, maintaining respect for cultural issues, adopting sustainable exploitation practices, adhering to the environmental codes practices and understanding the law and regulations on these aspects. <br />
Access to and judicial use of water resources was a key consideration in developing an exploitation strategy that was consistent with local needs.<br />
Governments are <em><strong>developing innovative investment policies </strong></em>to encourage new exploration activity, such as Chile with its Fenix Fund, to give SME explorers access to funds for 50 projects over the next 10 years. These are the companies with the new ideas to challenge the existing paradigms!<br />
d.	<strong>Latin America's Core:</strong> <em><strong>Perception is not reality</strong></em> in these important countries led by Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico where current GDP growth for the region was about 5.1% in 2010 (OECD about 2.3%).  The estimate for 2011 is 3.5% (OECD about 1.7%) but these countries are not immune from the effects of an EU contagion and /or a slowdown in China demand as is evident in the 4th quarter 2011.<br />
<em><strong> Composition-</strong></em>The region has two languages (Spanish in 16 countries and Portuguese in Brazil) with about 540 million people (aging and needing skills upgrades). However there is expected to be  improving literacy and living standards over the coming decade and the collective economies  will have a GDP that is about 80% of mainland China's GDP. This is an impressive regional market with 80% of its trade done outside the region on a north-south axis. On the other hand it has a growing dependency on exports to China and Asia away from traditional North American and EU markets.<br />
A key issue for the region is <em><strong>infrastructure development</strong> </em>in all countries to underpin energy supply, health, transportation and urban growth and improvements to the environment. Improved transparency will increase productivity and sustainability. Wealth distribution is critical.<br />
The region has 6 countries that are considered<em><strong> "investment grade"</strong></em> Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Mexico and Panama.<br />
There is <em><strong>political stability</strong></em> in these major resource countries that underpins investor risk taking.  It is apparent from the Ambassadors' presentations that this is a core theme to new investors in the region, i.e., political stability, market related fiscal regimes, investor rights are critical to their national investment and growth strategies. In essence, the global market place and its demands for administrative transparency, the ability to earn returns commensurate with risk and adhere to growing demands of CSO, is ensuring that each country has a competitive regime to attract FDI. <br />
There have been significant changes over the last decade with the commencement of structural reforms in resource fiscal terms, protection of investment rights and intellectual property rights as well as banking (including repatriation of dividends and taxation), but the challenge is to  build on this start.<br />
The <em><strong>challenges for the region</strong></em> are to promote wealth distribution, improve educational and skill opportunities and resist the temptation for protectionist policies when trade agreements "kick-in" as the importance of China to their economies grows. Finally, the balance between community needs and stakeholder returns needs to be attuned to cultural issues.<br />
</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p>e.	<strong>Dominant Economy</strong>: Brazil is the largest economy (Australia fits in the physical dimensions of Brazil) with 192 million people and a GDP of circa US$ 2200 billion which is underpinned by a large manufacturing sector (40% of GDP) and a large internal market equal to 60% of GDP. The latter is founded on the exploitation of its massive hydrocarbon reserves in the offshore Santos Basin which bring it into the top 10 of global hydrocarbon producers. <br />
f.	<strong> Investment Allocation:</strong> Austrade estimate that some AUD$ 240 billion will be spent on development projects (not including exploration expenditure) in the next 5 to 10 years    (to 2020) with 32% going to Chile, 24% to Peru, 12% to Brazil and 9% to Colombia. Colombia has the fastest growth in exploration resources spending, attributable to increased competition for exploration permits (successful allocation of new energy exploitation permits The Open Round 2010 ("TOR") June 2010) and enhanced transparency in resource administration.<br />
g.	<strong>Australian Investors</strong>: The Australian investor understanding of South American countries is limited by distance, unfamiliarity with the different markets, cultures, governments and perceptions about operating in these far-off regions.  Currently there are about 250-300 Canadian resources companies (within the same time zones as Colombia) that operate in both energy and resources exploitation covering 1000 + resource projects. I In 2009 they raised $AUD 3.0 billion capital on the Toronto Securities Exchanges. They also have active support from the Canadian Federal Government Department of Foreign Affairs (an active sponsor in association with the Alberta Provincial Government of the <em><strong>Colombia International Petroleum Conference & Exhibition November 2011</strong></em>) in competing in this Latin American market. This support provides Australia's competitors a great advantage over our resource and energy industries to compete in this lucrative resource market.<br />
h.	<strong>Company presentations </strong>were on the whole excellent, providing information on the technical and commercial challenges. A reoccurring theme was "in-country" management which signalled the use of a blend of local experienced expertise with expatriate support. It makes for easier dealings with all stakeholders and acknowledgement of contemporary thinking in resource exploitation.  In addition there was strong focus on CSO and indigenous issues, environmental practices and judicial use of water resources.<br />
Testimonials  indicated the benefits of a thorough due diligence process to create an understanding of the legal process for the business, developing partnerships with reputable local partners, having transparent JVs and dealing at all time with community and stakeholder issues.  <br />
i.	<strong>Sundry Comments. </strong> <br />
i.	<em><strong> Funding Sources:</strong> </em>The conference was advised that in seeking China funds for resource development there was a need to understand the Chinese drivers for approval;never make an announcement until the money is in the bank! Their needs are driven by their own cultural experiences. In China for resource development, there can be as many as 41 government approvals from all levels required to advance to the production phase and that process has coloured their own "due diligence" process. Similarly in dealing with indigenous and minority rights, they have limited knowledge on how these matters are managed. This compares to Australian "due diligence process" that puts physical assets like transportation as a key matter for resolution. Understanding the DD focus of the capital source is critical as much as having alternative option sources to create some competitive tension.<br />
ii.	<em><strong>Security </strong></em>- It is the "elephant" in the room when discussing investment in Latin America.  Through perception and not reality, investors are drawn to believe it is still a major issue and there is no adjustment for success achieved. This is  similar to inferences drawn from the "Hollywood film constructs" about life in certain countries, such as the films with Chuck Norris about MIAs in Vietnam with a majority  of Americans still believing  that they exist today - 35 + years from the end of the Vietnam war! <br />
Latin America, from Colombia to Chile in the countries discussed, have made great strides in improving community and investment safety by reducing the threats of terrorism supported by active social redistribution strategies. There is always room for improvement, but perceptions are changing and this conference was an important step in that process.<br />
Geoffrey R Widmer <br />
Palliser Group<br />
61-3-9819-3995(p) <br />
<a href="http://www.palliser.com.au">www.palliser.com.au</a><br />
28th November 2011<br />
<strong>Disclaimer:</strong><br />
The preceding commentary is a complication of views and data expressed at the 17th to 18th November 2011 -South American Diggers 2011 Conference expressed by the various participants. The Palliser Group has not verified these facts as presented to the conference and has not made independent enquiries as to the validity of the statements made or of the data presented. The Palliser Group recognises the authors of the various views as detailed in the South American Diggers 2011 Conference.<br />
</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>APPEA Perth April 2011 &quot;The industry is coming to a community near you! It is just over the horizon! Does the industry have a social contract with the communities to operate?&quot;</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2011/05/appea_perth_april_2011_the_ind.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=38" title="APPEA Perth April 2011 &quot;The industry is coming to a community near you! It is just over the horizon! Does the industry have a social contract with the communities to operate?&quot;" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2011:/tips//2.38</id>
    
    <published>2011-05-04T04:49:34Z</published>
    <updated>2011-06-24T06:11:28Z</updated>
    
    <summary>1. Observations from the APPEA Conference a. APPEA Conference 2011. Impact. This Conference had a vitality about it that reflected the growth of the industry around gas developments, an attendance of 3200 + delegates, as well as an excellent Industry...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>1.	<strong>Observations from the APPEA Conference</strong><br />
a.	<strong>APPEA Conference 2011. </strong><br />
<strong>Impact.</strong> This Conference had a vitality about it that reflected the growth of the industry around gas developments, an attendance of 3200 + delegates, as well as an excellent Industry Exhibition of skills, capabilities and advanced technologies that drive the exploitation industry. It showcased the importance of WA to the industry. The State accounts for 67% of the annual production valued at A$19.0 billion, currently 44% of the Australian annual exploration expenditure and estimated to increase to 60% by 2020. With gas reserves in excess of 160TCF, a major share of the estimated LNG production by 2020 of 60 MTPA nationally, a likely surge in investment of some $170 billion over the next 5 years in LNG and iron ore projects and their associated infrastructure needs, WA accounts for about 70% of the resource developments in Australia and is therefore a "powerhouse" of the Australia's prosperity. <br />
<strong>Tax revenue sharing.</strong> WA can and has demanded that the Federal Government review the taxation sharing of GST to fund important infrastructure developments to service the burgeoning export demands for Australian resources. WA points out that it receives only $0.68/$1.0 of GST collected, while the eastern seaboard States receive more than $0.90/$1.0 collected. The WA receipts are expected to fall to $0.44/$1.0 collected by 2014 under current Federal/State taxation sharing arrangements. Any redistribution will almost certainly have negative impacts on the revenue positions of both NSW and Victoria.   So, stand by for a political stoush with WA in the driver seat given its importance to national developments and prosperity! <br />
<strong>Exploitation policy</strong>. In addition, by pointedly saying "keep your hands off Woodside", the current WA State Government has clearly put a shot across the bows of the international energy companies, directing them to focus on exploitation of the onshore and offshore resources in the State and to keep the Commonwealth Government's best interests in mind rather than pursuing their own global resource exploitation strategies. This is paramount to WA and infers that the strong working relationships between the State Government and Woodside will only be maintained with an independent Woodside.<br />
In addition, the State Government is clearly signalling to the Federal Government to act in the national interest. Given the Australian resource prospectively, globally competitive PSC, adherence to "rule of law", environmental credentials, strong economic performance and democratic processes, it is a strong call by the WA Government to put the both the Federal Government and international companies on notice that Australia's energy developments can be pursued with capable local ownership and that resource exploitation is not necessarily a "poker game" for international companies to optimise their respective global investment portfolios !<br />
 <strong>Gas as an energy source. </strong>The overwhelming focus of the Conference was the confirmation of the emergence of gas (conventional gas and non conventional CSG and shale gas) as the dominant future fuel source. There was limited discussion of the widening gap created by declining domestic liquids production and the impact of this on the country's balance of payments. The dominance of gas occurs on the West Coast with existing and new LNG projects as well as the emergence within five years of 2 to 4 LNG projects at Gladstone, Queensland. <br />
Gas also has the advantage of being a transition fuel to green clean low carbon emissions fuels in the next 50 years given its low greenhouse gas emissions compared to coal used for power generation. <br />
<strong>Format.</strong> The Conference plenary session format reflected the leadership role the industry is taking by focussing on safety and risk management at all levels of the industry to identify and mitigate the risks. Industry is also pushing technology as a key driver to deliver projects to its customers in more challenging work environments and by using nonconventional resources. It is in agreement with the Federal Government's position of a single National Safety Regulator, notwithstanding the States' opposition to such a safety authority.<br />
<strong>Technology. </strong> A key plenary session was the focus on the critical importance of technology in commercialising all forms of resources and the "value-add" to processing of gas to liquids. Technology has changed exploitation practices to enhance recovery of resources and emissions abatement, commercialise non-conventional resources, improve hydrocarbon processing and make changes to transportation. This brings huge benefits to safety and management of the environment.<br />
The improvement in technology is not well appreciated by the community, however people just expect it to be there and working at no cost! The Shell presentation brought this into sharp relief when the company indicated that Qatar GTL project took about 40 years of research (in Holland, Shell  employs 60 FTE specialist engineers and scientists  working in R&D  at an annual cost of US 1.0 billion), commercialisation and construction at cost of US$ 18 billion for 140,000 boepd starting in 2011. Technology is a long-term and expensive commitment and the industry needs to do a much better job in communicating its importance to achieving superior outcomes for all stakeholders as it justifies its right to have a social contract to operate.</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p>2.	<strong>Social Contract to Operate.</strong><br />
	<em>"Does the industry have a social contract to operate?"</em><br />
One recurrent theme during the Conference was the need for the industry to understand the communities they work in.  The industry has never really had to deal with the proximity of its operations to many communities or deal with a collection of resource projects so immense that its strains their infrastructure. But many operations now abut and co-exist with other important land users, such as farming and cropping on the Darling Downs in Queensland and in central NSW as well as running into objections on heritage and cultural grounds. The industry by and large has operated "over the horizon" in offshore and remote areas that didn't require consideration of community aspirations and concerns.<br />
The industry has not needed to deal with this issue as a matter of survival. But now a confluence of events has made this a critical issue for the industry to operate. Such events include  the dramatic expansion of nonconventional resources  involving projects on a mega scale  that have the  potential to  monopolise local infrastructure; strong economic parameters nationally; and very tight labour and skills markets coupled with a community desire to protect  its environment and interests as well as  to participate in the development process and receive a share of the national benefits.</p>

<p>The community concerns revolve around the need for information, confidence and transparency in all dealings.  A failure to "take the communities with you", runs the risk of a loss of political support and the imposition of more regulations. Already, the CSG/LNG onshore projects need some 1500 headline approvals from Federal/State/Local governments and possibly as many as 3000 approvals overall required before they can proceed. This level of scrutiny is greater than that required by the Uranium industry!</p>

<p>In particular, the communities are looking to be satisfied with<br />
i.	<em>Environmental management.</em> They need to be assured that there is transparency and accountability over time with industry practices.<br />
ii.	<em>Local content to generate local employment.</em> Local suppliers need to have a "piece of the pie" but there are quality, cost and capability issues that industry needs to communicate effectively; it is a key issue to maintain Government support.  <br />
iii.	<em>Safety issues. T</em>he lessons from Montara and GOM spills are still to be enacted. There is a focus on the safety processes to develop a core culture that will ensure that all incidents/lessons from accidents are communicated within companies and that senior executives know and will be held accountable for material breaches in safety and poor risk management.<br />
iv.	<em>Work skills and Training</em>- There is Federal Government recognition of a shortage of skilled workers to meet the resource development requirements during the next 5 years. Government needs to manage this issue to avoid inflationary impacts of wages breakout through a mixture of policies involving more training, temporary 457 visas for skilled workers, Enterprise Migration Agreements and work force planning. The industry will need to continually demonstrate its commitments to employee productivity. <br />
v.	<em>Supply and pricing of resources for local consumption.</em> In WA, the community is concerned about the availability and the gas price for domestic consumption with gas prices there about double those in the prevailing Eastern Seaboard markets.  WA will maintain with flexibility the domestic restriction allocation of project resources to the local market. It is essential that the community sees that affordably priced gas is available to that market as a precursor for continued support of the LNG developments with their market based contracts.<br />
vi.	<em>Willingness of the industry to address community issues (listen, educate and act) and develop a sense of participation in the process</em>. The industry must be prepared to negotiate and deal with community issues.</p>

<p>3.	<strong>LNG:</strong><br />
<strong>Follow-on from 2010 </strong>As per the 2010 Conference, the importance to the Australia economy -<strong> the dominance of LNG</strong> to Australia was re-enforced.<br />
To 2025, LNG demand is expected to grow globally to 460 MTPA, but will be influenced by the changing gas markets of the Americas as unconventional gas such coal shale gas (CSG & shale gas) wins market share at competitive prices. The WA developments of Pluto are surging to first production in 2011, 2 new projects in Queensland have achieved FID with a third expected in 2011. First shipment has slipped to 2015/2016 time frame but still a massive achievement for the industry to move from concept to market commercialisation to FID within  5 to 6 years and then to construct and within a further 4 years.<br />
In addition to the existing LNG projects at NW Shelf, Darwin and at Gorgon ( 2014 production) and further LNG developments at Chevron's  Wheatstone and Shell's FLNG at the Prelude which are likely to get FID in 2011 and first production in the2016/2017 time frame , <strong>Australia will propel itself into 2nd place internationally as an LNG supplier globally</strong>. This will be more evident as the traditional global producers such as Nigeria, Russia Malaysia, Indonesia and Iran will have reduced capacity.<br />
There were differing views as to the global supply/demand equation for LNG over the next 5 years especially for the Asian markets as developments mature and demand changes. The views include a tightening supply position in Asia as both India and China will account collectively for about 50% of uncontracted demand to 2020, while a   contrary view is that there will be limited opportunities for "new players" as the uncontracted demand in the next decade in Asia will be re-supplied from existing fields. This latter view depends on the supply availability and surety from existing LNG producers.</p>

<p>In the short term this will be especially important as Japan adjusts its fuel mix by about 6% - 13% of their energy needs post the Fukushima nuclear mishap. In the short term, this change will require about 6 MTPA of LNG to meet energy needs to be supplied initially from LNG destined for the Atlantic Basin market. The longer term demands are still being assessed. <br />
For Australian sourced LNG that probably means a benefit of upward price pressure to their contracts. In addition, Australia has a reputation for supply security, stability and reliability which translates into demand for Australian sourced LNG. However, there are near-term risks that the proposed MRRT/extension of the PRRT that will add costs pressures to the projects that Australia's competitors are unlikely to have. Therefore, it will add to the commercial uncertainty of some projects.<br />
Price negotiations will be very competitive, especially those contracts that have oil indexation as a price driver. In the longer term, it is estimated that a FOB gas price of $12/MMBTU (at least $US 80/BBL) is required to have a sustainable project at current costs and regulations. Project viability is very sensitive to market delays, cost overruns and worker productivity. Industry estimates on other LNG projects, have shown that a combination of a years delay in production coupled with a 20% cost overrun can reduce project economics by up to 80%. These parameters are within the range of potential outcomes for Australian projects!<br />
These massive resource projects demand solid partnerships between all participants- Governments at all levels, resource owners and developers, banks, regulators, customers and community. <br />
4.	<strong>Global Supply and Demand.</strong> The issue of China/India liquids demand growth to 2030, as they raise their respective  living standards and hence the impact on the global supply/demand equation for petroluem products raises serious questions about supply. The conference heard that through energy efficiency with both the EU and the USA changing their respective energy consumption mixes and with China's drive into gas  ( environmental reason the driver), the global supply will be able to cater for increased liquids demand and usage in China and India and not necessarily at the expense of industrialised countries.<br />
By 2030 it is estimated global demand for petroleum will be 102 million bopd -  up from 85 million bopd in 2010 -  of which 75% of the growth will come from Asia and the balance from non- OECD counties where oil dependency will remain very high. <br />
To 2030, OECD countries will reduce their demand by 4 million bopd due to changes in their fuel mix equivalent to 1990 usage levels. This reduction will come from higher gas usage (LNG) and lower oil usage driven by technology and efficiencies. A similar story emerges for USA where the main source of gas will be non-conventional (coal shale and csg). Power generation will be the main use for gas and that will assist in emissions control. Electric cars will have limited impact on demand patterns until post 2030. <br />
 75% of the oil supply will come from OPEC which will entrench the organisation's market power on pricing and supply. Interestingly, by 2030, biofuels will max out at 6% of the fuel mix with 6 million bopd due to land access issues.<br />
This analysis starts to put a "fence" around the issues of energy convergence (energy per capita of GDP) as countries industrialise and as the pattern for USA, Japan and UK (market economies) follow the same efficiencies trends. Also with China's move to industrialisation (central economy) following the same OECD patterns, it indicates how we should start to think about the sharing of scarce resources as the population grows to 2050.<br />
5.	<strong>Balance of Payments implications - Liquids deficit</strong>.  In 2010 Minister Ferguson's presentation at APPEA provided a stark reality check on the dramatic impact on the nation's balance of payments outlook of rapidly declining domestic oil production. Again in 2011, the APPEA Chairman reiterated this looming critical issue.<br />
 The Palliser Report from previous APPEA Conferences has highlighted this impact as critical to future standards of living with significant risks to the Australian dollar as the currency adjusts to increasing energy imports and the general demand for overseas goods and services. The Government's own figures forecast that the deficit, from increased purchases of <strong>imported petroleum will increase from A$16 billion in 2010 to A$30 billion in 2015 at current prices.</strong> Tightening oil supply over this period due to increased Chinese and Indian demand will likely increase prices and hence the deficit. Payment has to come from somewhere - increased exports of LNG would be critical. <br />
This issue is "a ticking time bomb" for the Federal Government which has  few policy levers to use to ameloirate the inevitable rise in bowser petrol prices. The  community deserves to have some serious policy debates about the options not just "knee-jerk" political comments when the community feels the economic pain at the petrol pump! <br />
Geoffrey R Widmer <br />
CEO <br />
Palliser Group<br />
PO Box, 544 Hawthorn Vic, 3122.<br />
61-(0) 419-310-601 <br />
Email: gwidmer@palliser.com.au<br />
www.palliser.com.au<br />
20th April 2011<br />
Disclaimer:<br />
The preceding commentary is a compilation of views and data expressed at the 10th April to 14th April 2011 APPEA Conference expressed by the various participants. The Palliser Group has not verified these facts as presented to the conference and has not made independent enquiries as to the validity of the statements made or of the data presented. The Palliser Group recognises the authors of the various views as detailed in the APPEA Conference Program.<br />
</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Good Oil Conference September 2010 Unconventional Gas is the Holy Grail for SME explorers! </title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2010/09/good_oil_conference_september_1.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=37" title="Good Oil Conference September 2010 Unconventional Gas is the Holy Grail for SME explorers! " />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2010:/tips//2.37</id>
    
    <published>2010-09-26T07:31:44Z</published>
    <updated>2010-09-26T07:45:01Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The 10th annual Good Oil Conference (GOC) had a series of very clear messages:- 1. The steady rise of unconventional gas and oil resources as the new Holy Grail for enterprise value given a. The market confidence in this resource...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="Business Commentary" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The 10th annual Good Oil Conference (GOC) had a series of very clear messages:-  <br />
1.	The steady rise of unconventional gas and oil resources as the new Holy Grail for enterprise value given <br />
a.	The market confidence in this resource as a secure future energy resource to offset diminishing conventional resources.<br />
b.	The advances in technology to lower risks of exploitation.<br />
c.	Enhanced resource value with associated liquids , <br />
d.	Its sheer size and ability to transform a company.<br />
2.	China is the big issue in terms of it economic performance as it is a key component in the engine of global growth. There are GDP growth risk concerns about the Chinese economy as the key drivers for its exceptional performance during the GFC were its strong export performance, strong private sector demand and a high level of Government stimulus. There key factors are not performing strongly in 2010 and there is a debate about the need now for a significant Government spending stimulus to remove the uncertainly of the economic growth in China and keep it performing strongly. A delay in the timing of this Chinese Government spending stimulus as a result of this debate being bogged down in policy paralysis is a real risk to the global economy and the aspirations of other foreign Governments to reflate their economies- reduce deficits and unemployment.<br />
Oil demand in China will be sustained (see point 5 below) but the Government is re-balancing the energy mix to increase gas consumption to about 35% within the decade.<br />
3.	Presentations indicated that the Australian SME companies have largely repaired their balance sheets and repositioning themselves for growth opportunities with more balanced exploration areas and play types in their exploitation portfolios.<br />
4.	The SME explorers are looking to growth opportunities outside Australia/Asia to Africa and Eastern Europe and not the USA. The Australian hard rock miners are showing the way in Africa already with 170 companies there now in 500 projects notwithstanding the commercial risks and infrastructure issues in a large number of these countries. It will be interesting to see how the Australian energy SMEs get involved to explore in these parts of Africa.<br />
5.	Investment decisions on exploitation budgets for 2011 onwards will be underpinned by oil supply/demand fundamentals favouring an oil price circa $US 80-95/bbl into 2011 firming annually thereafter as demand in China and India stretch supply.  As a result there will also be significant oil price volatility over the next 5+ years as the supply /demand equations tries to rebalance. Oil demand globally is estimated to increase at a rate of 2.2% p.a. until 2040 mainly driven by energy demand in China(In China an estimated 380 million cars in 2030 from 80 million in 2010); this supply demand scenario with price volatility is a continuing theme from these Australian energy conferences. However, the community at large are generally unaware of these long term impacts particularly on future bowser price pressure and its impact on the family budget.<br />
6.	The exchange rate A$: US$ will not work in favour of the industry in revenue terms as the strong A$ price compared the US $ is likely to remain in the high 90s range for the foreseeable future given the strong Australia trade fundamentals underpinned by the resources boom in China (both in terms of volume and commodity prices) and the USA Federal Government working to reduce the US to improve their export competitiveness.<br />
7.	A theme from the presentations  was that SME explorers on the East Coast are looking to unconventional gas ( CSG, shale gas) for the LNG markets as a means to attract shareholder value to their share price given the perceived reserve shortfall of about 20TCF( Bow Energy estimate) over the life of the  4 LNG projects at Gladstone. It is likely there will continued M&A activity with these SMEs as their resource thresholds increase to levels where they will be attractive to a corporate play from the Majors. Developments in the LNG export markets will continue to attract wide attention given their significant impacts on the local and national economies both in economic and environmental terms.</p>

<p>Geoffrey R Widmer <br />
CEO <br />
Palliser Group<br />
61-3-9819-3995(p) <br />
Email: gwidmer@palliser.com.au<br />
www.palliser.com.au<br />
15th September 2010</p>

<p>Disclaimer:<br />
The preceding commentary is a complication of views and data expressed at the 7th-8th September 2010 Good Oil Conference expressed by the various participants. The Palliser Group has not verified these facts as presented to the conference and has not made independent enquiries as to the validity of the statements made or of the data presented. The Palliser Group recognises the authors of the various views as detailed in the Good Oil Conference Program. <br />
</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>World Petroleum Conference- Regional Meeting Latin American and IV Colombian Oil &amp; Gas Investment Conference , Cartagena, Colombia June 2010</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2010/07/world_petroleum_conference_reg.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=36" title="World Petroleum Conference- Regional Meeting Latin American and IV Colombian Oil &amp; Gas Investment Conference , Cartagena, Colombia June 2010" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2010:/tips//2.36</id>
    
    <published>2010-07-28T00:06:51Z</published>
    <updated>2011-11-29T07:47:50Z</updated>
    
    <summary>1. Observations from the Cartagena Conference. The Conference week from the 22nd to 25th June in Cartagena included a variety of energy activities- i. The awarding of petroleum exploitation licences conducted by the ANH (National Administration of Hydrocarbons) through a...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>1.	<strong>Observations from the Cartagena Conference.</strong><br />
The Conference week from the 22nd to 25th June in Cartagena included a variety of energy activities- <br />
i.	The awarding of petroleum exploitation licences conducted by the ANH (National Administration of Hydrocarbons) through a transparent bidding process called The Open Round (TOR) demonstrated the maturity, sophistication and advances of the Colombian economy and the political structure.<br />
ii.	The WPC regional meeting focusing on the challenges (commercial, technical) for the developing sustainable energy resources for the region through potential sharing of infrastructure.<br />
iii.	Issues related to investment oil and gas developments, use of technology, environment, transportation and the opportunities for non conventional oil and gas. <br />
These events created a very positive attitude to the recent achievements in Colombia under the current Uribe Government. The attendance of President Uribe and President elect Santos (who will take over in August 2010) to give presentations on their government's achievements and the policies to be followed under the new Santos Government, underline the central importance of the energy exploitation to the Colombian economy. These include provision of a vehicle to expand the economy, improve employment and training opportunities and provide the government with resources to improve social, education and health infrastructure in Colombia.  Overall these are critical steps to improving long-term security and prosperity.<br />
The strong regional representation from participants such as former President Lagos of Chile, the heads of the key NOCs from Peru, Brazil, Panama, Mexico and their respective administrative organisations in the Latin America region and the Norwegian President of Petroteam A.S., gave this conference the gravitas of the importance of energy developments in Latin American and the central role that Colombia will play in these regional developments.<br />
</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p>2.	<strong>The Open Round 2010 </strong>(TOR) was conducted by ANH and invited the industry to bid  on 229 petroleum licences ranging from existing producing (onshore) areas to offshore (exploration) areas. The results, announced on the 22nd June, were an excellent achievement for ANH and Colombia, with 96 petroleum licences awarded to about 23 companies (representing domestic and multinational companies) with a commitment to spend a total of about US$795 million over the next 3 years. <br />
3.	<strong>The Energy Industry in Colombia</strong>.  Current production is estimated to be 800,000 bopd. These licence awards are forecast to increase Colombian oil production to 1.5 million bopd by 2015.<br />
The key Colombian company is the NOC Ecopetrol. It has substantial resources (OOIP-43.9 billion barrels with 42% in heavy oil, 43% in conventional oil and 15% in gas resources) and integrated interests in transportation, refining and chemicals. It is using it base to expand its interests in the region in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Pacific coast in Peru.  A non exhaustive list of the key participants in Colombia includes Nexen, Pacific Rubiales and Talisman from Canada and multinationals such as BP, Chevron, BHPBilliton, Repsol and Petrobas which demonstrates the commercial and technical viability of the petroleum sector. A selection of these companies made strong presentations about the potential in Colombia and their intent to maintain & expand operations. <br />
This successful licensing round is not without challenges. It will undoubtedly put strains on the infrastructure, resources and services as the companies carry out their commitment work during the next 3 years.<br />
The fiscal regime is a competitive PSC and is based on production sliding scale royalty payments with an additional royalty payable once the cumulative production exceeds 5.0 million barrels. This additional royalty is based on the current market price compared to a WTI reference market price (currently set at about US$32/bbl for 29 API) - this royalty is capped at 50%. Gas royalty payments are at 80% of the oil royalty rates with a similar additional royalty based on reference to a Henry Hub gas price in the US.<br />
Colombia has substantial non conventional resources in coal seam gas ("CSG") which are not fully understood. The conference heard potential numbers in excess of 100TCF of CSG resources, but they are in need of rotation of the drilling bit to firm up the numbers. <br />
The administration of the licences is with the ANH and new regulations covering the issuance of licences for the exploitation of this non conventional sector are expected to be announced before the end of 2010. The size of these resources will lend itself to both substantial domestic gas production for the population and industry as well as export markets based on international market prices. There are parallel opportunities for LNG developments for sales into the Caribbean and into Latin America given the planned development of LNG degassing infrastructure on the east coast of South America in Argentina, Brazil and also in energy deficient Chile and Peru.<br />
This is an exciting time to be associated with the energy developments in Colombia and Latin America in general, as energy demand in the region drives for access to more energy reserves. Coupled with greater cooperation, albeit at a slow pace,  this will see new markets opening and higher levels of exploitation to satisfy demand. The region also has a focus on environmental and social factors especially with the use of non conventional energy resources.<br />
The energy sector  is a critical industry to the Colombian Government which must use future tax returns from the energy developments that hopefully will result from the large injection of exploitation capital of US $ 795 million over the next 3 years for infrastructure. Expenditure will involve the transportation and communications sectors as well as providing training and employment opportunities, all of which help to raise the economic standards in Colombia.<br />
Geoffrey R Widmer <br />
CEO,Palliser Group<br />
61-3-9819-3995(p) <br />
61-(0) 419-310-601 <br />
Email: gwidmer@palliser.com.au<br />
www.palliser.com.au<br />
6th July 2010</p>

<p><br />
Disclaimer:<br />
The preceding commentary is a complication of views and data expressed at the 22nd to 25th June 2010 WPC regional Conference expressed by the various participants. The Palliser Group has not verified these facts as presented to the conference and has not made independent enquiries as to the validity of the statements made or of the data presented. The Palliser Group recognises the authors of the various views as detailed in the WPC Conference Program. <br />
</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>APPEA Brisbane May 2010</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2010/06/appea_brisbane_may_2010.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=34" title="APPEA Brisbane May 2010" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2010:/tips//2.34</id>
    
    <published>2010-06-30T00:50:37Z</published>
    <updated>2010-07-01T03:00:54Z</updated>
    
    <summary>&quot;There were 3 elephants in the room at the APPEA Conference but were there really four?&quot; 1. Observations from the APPEA Conference a.3 Elephants in the room- Super Profits Resource Tax (SPRT), Safety and LNG. i. SPRT and Safety. At...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="Business Commentary" />
            <category term="Business Tips" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>"There were 3 elephants in the room at the APPEA Conference but were there really four?"</strong><br />
1.	<strong>Observations from the APPEA Conference</strong><br />
     a.<strong>3 Elephants in the room- Super Profits Resource Tax (SPRT), Safety and LNG.</strong><br />
         i.	<strong>SPRT and Safety.</strong> At the start of the Conference, <strong><em>"2 elephants in the room"</em></strong> were bluntly established by the Federal Minister Hon. Martin Ferguson- super profits tax and safety. The Government saw them as critical to its performance credentials; <br />
               <strong>SPRT:</strong> From the Government's perspective the profits tax is going to happen so the industry had better get involved and talk with the Government about its implementation. Matters surrounding the insidious nature of this tax, including its retrospectivity and the failure of government to understand risk-reward issues in resources exploitation as well as a need to address the question "why not use the existing PRRT as a basis for discussion?" are likely to be canvassed in the media by all stakeholders. <br />
             <strong>Safety: </strong> from Government's perspective, this referred to the Montara oil spill and the industry needs to take note that following the tabling of the Montara report, there will be legislated change in offshore operations based on its recommendations. This will include the formation of a Federal National Regulator, already foreshadowed by the Minster, covering offshore petroleum activities and navigation. <br />
Did the industry hear this commentary above the consternation of the SPRT? At the Darwin APPEA (as reported in the APPEA Darwin Palliser Report) Minister Ferguson gave a clear signal that retention leases must be worked for hydrocarbon development or run the risk of losing them. This message was largely glossed over, although the Browse Basin LNG participants did see the strength of his resolve. Safety, including the environment, is very much a Federal Government focus especially with the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico swaying public opinion. The industry will need to be on the "front foot" as the recommendations and legislation are rolled out. </p>

<p>ii.	<strong>LNG: </strong>As the conference themes developed, a <em><strong>"3rd elephant in the room" </strong></em>emerged around gas and its importance to the Australia economy - the dominance of LNG to Australia. It became apparent that collectively (offshore WA and CSG in Queensland) potentially there will be 15 LNG projects by 2018, costing some A$220 billion involving 55,000 construction jobs and around 22,000 permanent jobs utilising about 460 TCF over 20+ years. The financial flow-through to the economy for the A$40 billion Gorgon/Jansz/Io project alone over its 20 year field life is estimated at A$50 Billion in local goods and services and A$60.0 billion tax receipts.<br />
This<strong> <em>massive development schedule to 2018 </em></strong>followed by operations for a further 30 years beyond the construction phase is a long-term commitment beyond the normal government election cycles of 2 to 4 years. <br />
</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p>These LNG developments cover projects with a variety of risks and challenges, including production of conventional gas with high CO2 content and its disposal by re-injection, developments in fragile environments, unproven technologies for floating LNG facilities in cyclone zones, CSG to LNG with water disposal challenges to meet regulations as well as community expectations for a share in the generated wealth from these developments. The projects will have access to local infrastructure (roads, schools, hospitals and housing) requiring unparalleled community consultation, agreement and a focus on local safety.<br />
 In addition, industry expects Governments to streamline approval processes to avoid duplication and inefficient use of scarce resources. Aboveall there is a need for a rational and stable fiscal system that evolves with all stakeholders involved.<br />
These massive resource projects demand <strong><em>solid partnerships</em></strong> between all participants- Governments at all levels, resource owners and developers, banks, regulators, customers and community. Everything is interconnected and disruptions from short-term political expediency (governments and labour) will have profound impacts on the supply chain of the economy; in essence, it will go to the <em><strong>sovereign risk of the country</strong></em>. At less than 2% of the global economy GDP, Australia has limited capability to arrest capital flight from sovereign risk issues when caused by short-term political expediency. <br />
I am not sure the industry in general realises the magnitude and consequences of this massive capital expenditure of up to A$ 220 billion. The community certainly does not. Development of partnerships with all stakeholders to realise the full potential for Australia will require a<strong> <em>seismic shift in attitude</em></strong> and co-operation and communication. The industry has started this process but will have to be the leader to ensure it happens. <br />
The<strong> <em>market risks of these projects</em></strong> cannot be under estimated. During the last five years petroleum engineering technology has provided a significant competitive edge for the alternate gas fuel source - shale gas- to be a viable option for satisfying energy demand in the USA and elsewhere.  This has fundamentally changed the Atlantic Basin energy market for LNG demand, as it is projected that LNG annual tonnage will fall from a 2020 forecast volume of 90 mmtpa to 10-15 mmtpa. In other words, the Atlantic Basin will change from being the largest global LNG importer to 10th largest global importer by 2020. This dramatic change is a result of <strong><em>competitively priced shale gas </em></strong>in the fuel mix referenced to Henry Hub pricing that meets the local gas market demand and wins market share at the expense of imported LNG. This change has occurred during the last 5 years within the planning and construction phases for new global LNG supplies mainly destined for the USA energy market. It is a long-term phenomenon in the USA as the IGU estimates there are at least 90 years of proven and potential gas reserves in the country which will augmented by further shale gas discoveries i.e. by 2020, 73% of the USA gas reserves will be unconventional gas with shale gas being a dominant player in the market.<br />
The short to medium term-market consequence is that these supplies, mainly from Qatar, deflected from the US market, will be sold principally into the Asia market where there will be price competition just at the time CSG LNG from Queensland and WA LNG are fighting for market share in Asia. When coupled with the uncertainty of a RSPT, it will bring the economics and profitability into sharp focus and potentially delay FID and production start-up. These market matters were not considered in 2008 and 2009 when corporate decisions to pay high transaction prices for the significant CSG resources were made to buy 2P reserves from 2007 to 2010 at a median price of A$1.98/GJ in Queensland. If the projects cannot reach FID in the next few years there are likely to be some balance sheet write-downs for those companies with no or deferred projects as these commercial matters become better understood in the coming years by investors and regulators. <br />
b.	<strong>Asian Gas market</strong> - The prevailing forecasts are that Asia will be the engine for energy growth to 2030 with an annual increase of 1.3% p.a., where it will account for about 60% of the global energy growth. The Asian countries are short of domestic oil and gas production and hence gas sold as LNG, through an increasing interconnected logistics system, is a key substitute product for the market in general.<br />
c.	<strong>Balance of Payments implications - Liquids deficit.</strong>  Minister Ferguson's presentation provided a stark reality check on the dramatic impact on the nation's balance of payments outlook of rapidly declining domestic oil production. The Palliser Report from previous APPEA Conferences has highlighted this impact as critical to future standards of living with significant downside to the Australian dollar as the currency adjusts to increasing energy imports and the general demand for overseas goods and services. The Government's own figures forecast that the deficit, from increased purchases of imported petroleum, will increase from A$16 billion in 2010 to A$30 billion in 2015 at current prices. Tightening oil supply over this period due to increased Chinese and Indian demand will likely increase prices and hence the deficit. Payment has to come from somewhere - increased exports of LNG would be critical, but commercial uncertainties as noted above may defer the timing and magnitude of additional export receipts. This potentially would put the Australian dollar at increased risk.<br />
d.	<strong>Workforce</strong> - Key issues again were raised noting the Herculean task of attracting about 20,000 new employees into the industry, with training and safety as a priority. This has far-reaching implications for government education and immigration policies. The industry has a particular problem in that it retains only about 18% of its female employees compared to other industries nationally at about 45%. The industry needs to develop HR policies that provide incentives for women to stay in the industry.<br />
e.	<strong>Greenhouse Emission</strong>.  This was not a 'hot' topic for discussion although the need to provide a carbon pricing of A$20-A$40 per tonne was noted to give the right pricing signals for electricity investment decisions- coal vs. gas. Base-load generation is unlikely to be built until this carbon pricing question is sorted out. There are also difficulties in using renewable energy as base-load capacity to meet RET targets as this is likely to result in much higher electricity prices due to online performance. There are opportunities for gas penetration into electricity generation if the carbon pricing signals are developed. These issues have slipped under the Federal Government’s radar, but they demonstrate the need for stable long-term policies for major investment decisions.<br />
2.	<strong>Global - Supply and Demand - Pricing</strong><br />
a.	<strong>Energy demand</strong> is estimated to grow by 1.5% p.a.  from 2005 to 2030 for a cumulative growth of about 35% to 40% fuelled by a global population increase from 6.7 billion to 8 billion. About 80% of the 2030 demand will be sourced from fossil fuels with gas the best credentialed to help in the reduction of CO2 emissions. Asia will account for 60% of this energy demand growth with liquids demand rising by 1.0%- 1.5% p.a. and gas demand accounting for 6% growth p.a. By 2030 power generation will account for 40% of total energy demand fuelled by the China and India as they source energy for their burgeoning economies. China is targeting gas/LNG to change its fuel mix so that 35% of energy needs are sourced from gas as the country pushes to reduce environmental impacts of the GDP growth of 10-12% p.a. <br />
The <strong><em>main sources of this gas </em></strong>will be from Russia (1500 TCF, reserve index 180 years), Iran (1000 TCF, reserve index 80 years) and Qatar (930 TCF, reserve index 80 years). These reserve life indices show overall capacity to meet global demand in excess of 60 years’ production at 2010 demand. It does beg the question of why Iran needs a nuclear capability with its high reserve life index!<br />
To 2020,<strong><em> LNG demand</em></strong> is expected to grow globally from around 200MTPA in 2010 to 350-400 MTPA by 2020, but will be influenced by the changing gas markets of the Americas as unconventional gas such shale gas  wins market share at competitive prices. The new transportation and degassing facilities in Asia are making this market more integrated and competitive.<br />
The <strong><em>clear picture is that China</em>,</strong> with its massive foreign exchange reserves, is positioning itself for global reach and, as a consequence,<strong> <em>exerts market power</em> </strong>with producers for all forms of energy with its relentless investment in exploitation and supply chain assets. The Chinese Government is positioning itself to meet long-term supply needs. Currently, the country produces about 850,000 BOPD and sells about 60% on the international market. China is a portfolio manager of its energy assets, balancing energy needs with political hedging and reality.<br />
In <strong><em>Australia, gas market share </em></strong>of energy demand is impacted by competition from an abundance of cheap coal which limits gas power generation to about 9%. This is especially acute with no carbon pricing policy or signals that will change the economic equation in favour of gas. <br />
The<strong><em> success of the domestic gas industry depends on the export of gas to Asian markets</em></strong>. These markets are in a rapidly changing landscape as LNG destined for the Atlantic Basin will look to find other markets in Asia. In addition, there will be significant additional LNG gas supply as countries such Qatar and Australia bring new capacity of about 75 MTPA and 80 MTPA respectively on line towards the mid 2015 to 2016, of which 50% of the Australian capacity will be sourced from CSG projects. This additional capacity will cloud the pricing signals needed for long-term investment. Industry sources estimate that the supply/demand balance in the next 5 years will rapidly turn to a tight LNG market as global growth advances. The challenge for the industry is to be constantly adjusting to these market dynamics.<br />
 <strong><em>Pricing decisions</em> </strong>for LNG contracts will start from an oil/gas differential of US$8-9/mmbtu from the per-barrel oil price. This differential has varied little recently and at current oil prices in the range of US$70-80/bbl, it would translate to an LNG price in the Atlantic Basin of US$6/mmbtu compared to Henry Hub prices below US$4-5/mmbtu. The economics don't compute on today's pricing! The betting is that the Asia market will see this differential significantly reduce from 2020. Investing in LNG is in essence a 'leap of faith' that long-term pricing will support the investment. This was noted at the APPRA Darwin 2009 Conference during the plenary sessions and the changes in market sentiment since then make this statement more understandable.<br />
Interestingly, the industry seems to accept the oil price is 'what it will be' and there are few if any serious forecasts, although there is a recognition that as higher Asian demand kicks in (estimated 250 million cars in China in 2025) and supply tightens, the long-term oil price will rise steadily. However this will not be without some significant short-term gyrations caused by major supply interruptions.</p>

<p>3.	<strong>Government Policy </strong><br />
In Norway there is a very interesting example of government intervention policy that may have merits upon further investigation when developing public policy for industrial development here in Australia. In the pre-oil production years of the 1970s, Norway was largely a fishing and shipping based economy. In the 1980s with the prospect of dwindling North Sea Oil, Norway developed a co-ordinated strategy to develop a global service industry that would sustain economic development into the future. In brief, this policy was to develop Norwegian capabilities in the long-term to compete globally in energy services. It gave Statoil a dominant position in all permits and influence, favoured Norwegian content via JVs, provided a focus on R&D to fund industry programs and Norwegian Universities which also developed educational programs tailored to industry programs. The consequence of this co-ordinated policy is that today Norway has a burgeoning export-oriented energy service industry that completes globally. It has 45 companies listed on the local securities exchange worth A$50 billion compared to Australia with a hand full of energy service companies listed on the ASX worth about A$8 billion. Australia does not have the local capacity to meet the challenge of developing the A$240 billion worth of proposed LNG projects to 2018. The expertise must be imported which means there will be limited skills transferred to the local economy. With Perth touted as a global energy centre, what is actually being serviced from within Australia?<br />
It appears that Norway may have established the right policy settings to generate the 'golden egg' of sustainable economic performance! On reflection, <strong><em>maybe there was a fourth elephant in the room at APPEA</em></strong> - not spoken, but it should have been firmly placed at seat of Government in a loud and co-ordinated voice. There is <strong><em>no long-term, consistent, innovative and stable government policy created with considered stakeholder communication aimed at wealth creation, sustainability and development of employment skills</em>.</strong> Instead we seem to have a scrambling of the golden egg for short-term political expediency!</p>

<p>Geoffrey R Widmer <br />
CEO,<br />
Palliser Group<br />
Email: gwidmer@palliser.com.au<br />
www.palliser.com.au<br />
30th June 2010<br />
Disclaimer:<br />
The preceding commentary is a compilation of views and data expressed at the 16th May to 19th June 2010 APPEA Conference expressed by the various participants. The Palliser Group has not verified these facts as presented to the conference and has not made independent enquiries as to the validity of the statements made or of the data presented. The Palliser Group recognises the authors of the various views as detailed in the APPEA Conference Program. </p>

<p><br />
</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>The Palliser Report - APPEA Conference April 6th to 9th April 08 Perth, West Australia.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2008/04/the_palliser_report_appea_conf_1.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=30" title="The Palliser Report - APPEA Conference April 6th to 9th April 08 Perth, West Australia." />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2008:/tips//2.30</id>
    
    <published>2008-04-27T09:27:51Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T01:18:42Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The 2008 APPEA was held against a backdrop of unprecedented activity in the Industry with over 2500 delegates attending. The mood reflected rapidly changing oil prices, resources shortages impacting on cost escalation and completion of projects and a new Federal...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>The 2008 APPEA was held against a backdrop of unprecedented activity in the Industry with over 2500 delegates attending. The mood reflected rapidly changing oil prices, resources shortages impacting on cost escalation and completion of projects and a new Federal Labour Government. What did we learn? The Plenary sessions focused on the growth and importance of natural gas - especially LNG, the growth of supply and demand til 2030 and the resource constraints impacting the industry. All great stuff, but the Plenary sessions were mediocre and the Conference lacked impact.</strong></p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Observations and Commentary</strong><br />
The important summary factors confronting the Industry and global governments are:-<br />
a<strong>.	Global energy demand </strong>will increase by about 20% to 2030 as it continues to reflect the growth in demand from <br />
i.	Global population and prosperity.<br />
ii.	 China's GDP, car usage, and rising per capital income. Low penetration of car usage in China. ( see Palliser Report October 2007 on China's demand profile at www.palliser.com.au)<br />
b.	<strong>Global gas markets have changed.</strong>  They are no longer value and access restricted by national policies and limited facilities, but LNG is transforming the market penetration of gas at competitive prices and deliverability to that of land-locked systems. LNG market penetration will triple to 2030 in generation (Europe) and industry (Asia) and will really benefit from<br />
i.	Technology  to provide economic returns  for "mini" LNG processing facilities sourced from CSG and <br />
ii.	Increased global degassing and processing infrastructure is providing additional delivery options for developing, in essence, a "liquid" market through arbitrage for LNG  via a mix of contracts and "spot" market deals.  It's great opportunity to capture the growth of electricity generation.  <br />
<strong>The demand for gas and the supply</strong> response in the period 2025-2030 will deal with many market factors:-<br />
iii.	USA gas usage at 25BCF/day with limited increased supply from traditional suppliers- Canada and Mexico to cater for increased demand- enter LNG!<br />
iv.	European countries will need to import 75% of their gas via LNG as concerns about the dependency and reliability of Russian supplies grows.<br />
v.	Traditional Middle East exporters of energy will become importers of gas as their aggregate demand will be the same as Europe by 2015.<br />
vi.	Burgeoning energy demand in China, notwithstanding its coal dominance over environmentally friendly sources, will fuel LNG growth.<br />
vii.	India will be the fifth largest energy consumer. 50% of the energy demand growth will come from underdeveloped countries<br />
viii.	Canada, Mexico and Indonesia will likely be importers of LNG whilst Qatar and Nigeria will be pre- eminent LNG suppliers.<br />
ix.	National policies will start to dictate more and more the security of domestic supply to satisfy domestic demand options and developments and resources will be quarantined from export.<br />
c.	<strong>Future energy markets</strong> will be dominated by conventional sources as by 2030, <br />
i.	Demand for gas will grow at 1.7% p.a. with about a third of the demand existing in Asia (China and India). Growth for LNG will be 1.3% p.a. European growth will be for power generation.<br />
ii.	 Demand for Renewables will grow at 10%p.a., but will only be at about 1.5% of total demand (off a very low demand base) and, post 2020, nuclear will grow at about 2 % p.a. and with the competitive pricing advantage of carbon taxes.<br />
iii.	Fossil fuels will continue to be a major source of energy mix; with declining hydrocarbon supply - particularly liquids, consumers will be left open to continued higher energy prices with limited options to reduce their energy demand. <br />
iv.	Many of the traditional exporters of energy will become importers, (e.g. the UK) and their net position is changing rapidly (< 5 years) which gives reduced flexibility to stimulate exploitation.<br />
v.	 Coal Seam Gas ("CSG") is becoming a major long-term global gas source- resources in the USA and Canada are 160 - 170 TCF and Australia 120TCF. The latter is spawning new industry with LNG plants for export from Gladstone by 2013.<br />
d.	<strong>LNG growth</strong> has been in Japan/Korea/Taiwan ("Tigers") but new markets will develop in China (power generation) and India as well as Europe which wants to diversify from Russia supply systems. Inter-regional trade from West Africa (Nigeria), Australia and the Middle East (Qatar) will supply these markets - Europe (less dependency on Russia) and Asia (Tigers & China). Australia's LNG production is to set triple by 2013; APPEA estimates that by 2017- production could be around 50-60 MTPA. However, Woodside CEO doubts the ability to deliver this growth due to resource constraints.<br />
e.	<strong>Security of energy supply</strong> is no longer guaranteed as major shortfalls in reserve replacement from exploitation continue below production and liquids replacement has declined to about 41% of annual global production in 2006. The industry, especially over the last 3 years, has been issuing warnings about the dire level of diminishing global liquids replacement and the pending impact on price pressures without Federal Governments and consumers taking heed of the data presented. <br />
The Industry  is failing in the public debate about this critical issue to generate discussions and options; a critical debate that must be had, so as to ensure that all stakeholders in the community understand these complex issues, options and lead time to solutions. There must be "no community surprises" (e.g. petrol rationing) that leads to future finger pointing and damages the industries ability to exploit hydrocarbon resources. Already the Federal Government is focused on short term actions that have limited impact e.g. retail petrol pricing without publicly raising the issues of measures to increase supply, improve efficiencies and infrastructure. With prices continuing the upward spiral, both Governments and consumers seem not to want to believe the possible consequences of the future oil price of US $200/barrel oil (Caltex 24th April 08) or a mixture of economic stagflation or rationing is on the horizon. The question is why?<br />
This is a huge challenge for the industry to facilitate a genuine stakeholder debate now!<br />
Without improvements in gas reserve replacement, the gas supply/demand imbalance will put significant pressure on Europe & Japan/Korea/Taiwan to secure additional resources followed by USA and then China and India as their economies develop. This competition will lead to tighter gas supply and pricing pressure.<br />
f.	<strong>Environmental </strong>considerations over climate change are dominating investment decisions- carbon trading, CO2 emissions with gas having a premium for carbon trading reasons.<br />
g.	<strong>Emissions trading</strong> will certainly give gas a commercial advantage over coal, but the long-term advantage will move to nuclear as carbon tax market prices rise. In the interim, this is a time for significant growth in gas market penetration. Whilst discussed with its potential impact on comparative fuel pricing and resource allocation in Australia, no definitive impact on emissions trading can be stated until targets are set in 2008/2009 and whether or not Australia is part of a global scheme. Til then it is speculation based on many models that are only as good as their assumptions - speculation with an abacus!<br />
h.	<strong>Business Risks</strong> are increasing even to companies with strong balance sheets and technical capability for major projects given their size (economic with competing fuels) and remote locations. These levels of risk, are not only from "traditional" risks such as reserve and production levels, fiscal terms and government stability, but also from increasing completion risks with their long lead times and capital cost escalation (30 to 40% within the last 18 months), financing cost overruns and delays, availability of skilled manpower and materials (steel, machines, fuel) and regulatory approvals. <br />
<strong>Sovereign risks</strong> are always present, but as large LNG projects are commercialised and operated in less developed countries, they can represent a delicate balance of commercial interest versus changing national interests for the JVs. For example, in PNG the proposed ExxonMobil LNG plant for about 2011-2013 at an estimated cost of $US10-11 billion to produce 6.3 MTPA for upto 20 years from reserves of 10TCF plus 12 mmbls of liquids, is a global scaled project which not only taxes the balance sheets of the participants but will bring pressures to the PNG Government as it will dominate the PNG GDP by an estimated 30 to 35%. Managing stakeholder relations and communications for this level of impact on the national economy is a mission critical activity for the JV to realise their commercial returns.<br />
 	In presentations from Shell and ExxonMobil at the Conference, their project maps showed little or no developments in South America; potential is there as well as the markets, but not the stable fiscal regimes- sovereign risk.<br />
i.	As <strong>nationalistic policies surface</strong>, the need to maintain a free and secure market will be imperative so as not to distort the supply/demand position. Otherwise there is the potential for market chaos.<br />
j.	<strong>For gas, Australia has around 60 years supply </strong>for 20 MTPA and is approaching the size and importance of Qatar as a major LNG energy source into Asia by 2020. <br />
<strong>For oil,</strong> the picture is bleak in Australia, with domestic liquids production at about 196 mmbbls in 2007; this represents a reserve life index of less the 14 years for crude and condensate and less than 10 years for crude alone, as current exploitation is not matching reserve replacement. According to Geosciences Australia, new offshore basins resources will be in water depths up to 2500 meters and technology will play an important part in their exploitation, but it is a long way off as the whole exploitation cycle is up to 15 years before any meaningful production would materialise from a commercial discovery. <br />
<strong>Overall,</strong> the Conference provided important information about the changing gas market, the importance of LNG and Australia's place in this rapidly changing market. However, overall the Conference was disappointing, in particular poor plenary sessions. The quality suffered because the speakers from the Majors and Government Agencies on LNG generally were not well prepared, or the data presented was not relevant to Australian markets.<br />
Disclaimer:  The above commentary and opinions were derived from forecasts and projections from presentations and conversations with participants at the APPEA Conference, Perth, W.A., in Australia in April 2008. They have not been derived from generic research and analysis from the Palliser Group. If a person or company wishes to use this data for their internal project and/or situation assessment, they should make their own enquiries as to the accuracy and appropriateness of the data in the report.</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>To be a director or not!</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2007/10/to_be_a_director_or_not_1.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=28" title="To be a director or not!" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2007:/tips//2.28</id>
    
    <published>2007-10-23T04:37:56Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T01:29:45Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Director Due Diligence-How to assess this critical role in your business portfolio by considering the following points! 1. Why should I be a director? After you have had your ego polished and the stars are still sparkling in your eyes...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Geoffrey Widmer</name>
        <uri>http://www.palliser.com.au/</uri>
    </author>
            <category term="Business Tips" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Director Due Diligence-How to assess this critical role in your business portfolio by considering the following points!</strong><br />
1.	<strong>Why should I be a director? </strong>After you have had your ego polished and the stars are still sparkling in your eyes post the offer to be on a board, ask yourself the critical question- </p>

<p>                           <strong><em>Why am I considering the role as a board director? </em></strong></p>

<p>Is it just my ego talking? Am I just a "figure head"? </p>

<p>Seems like a good idea to earn some easy board fees without too much work but not worried about my lack of skills or responsibilities?</p>

<p>Fits into my schedule without too much effort? </p>

<p>Have a genuine interest in the business/industry and can make a contribution to its growth and profitability? Could provide capital to the business? </p>

<p>As I professional investor, does this opportunity align with my objectives? </p>

<p>What role do I want to focus on in the Board as I believe and have experience in the products and the industry? </p>

<p>Are there any conflicts with my current activities?</p>

<p>It is an important question to answer as being a non-executive director can be a very rewarding experience but is a very serious position with many responsibilities and pitfalls if you don't understand the business, its strategy and solvency! <br />
When events turn against the company, ignorance of the facts and statements "I did not understand the business or my responsibilities when I joined or why I signed that cheque" are not acceptable to the regulators. You need to be informed!</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Note</strong><br />
You need to have a clear view as to your motivation for accepting a director position and have made searching enquiries as to the state of the business, its prospects, strategy, technology, competitors, ethics, Board culture, board governance and company solvency.</p>

<p>2.	<strong>What is the director role? </strong> The role of the Board in broad terms is to<br />
    a.	   Hire the CEO, ratifying senior management appointments and delegate the Board authorities to the executive with provision for adequate resources.<br />
    b.	   Approve the business strategy &  implementation and performance objectives.<br />
    c.	   Establish and approve business plans, control and accounting systems covering all aspects of the business.   <br />
    d.     Establish  systems for monitoring performance for executives and for the business through systems for financial management, risk management, internal control, codes of conduct and legal compliance.<br />
The director role is to participate in the resolution of these matters by using your skills and knowledge to represent all shareholders. Make sure that you understand what ASIC demands through Corporation Law in sections 180 to 183 of the Corporations Act 2001 for directors when exercising their powers broadly are <br />
    a.	   A duty of care and diligence acting as a reasonable person<br />
    b.	   Making decisions in good faith and for proper purpose<br />
    c.	   Acting in good faith in exercising director's powers.<br />
    d.	   Not using your position to gain a personal advantage to the detriment of the business</p>

<p><strong>Note:</strong><br />
Make sure that you are familiar with these legal requirements as this is how you will be judged if the business fails!</p>

<p><strong>Next section gives you the framework to answer your question!</strong></p>

<p>3.	<strong>Understand the Business and its strategy</strong> by reviewing<br />
    a.	   Board and Sub Committee minutes from the last 3 to 5 years.<br />
    b.	   Business plans and marketing documents from the last 3 to 5 years.<br />
    c.	   How is the market changing for this company and its products and services? What is the role of technology in this market?<br />
    d.	   Who are the major competitors and what do we know about them?<br />
    e.	   What are the top 5 challenges of the company?<br />
    f.	   What keeps the CEO awake at night?<br />
   g.	   Understand the company's client profiles. What are the risks in the profile? Too much dependency on 1 client?<br />
    h.	  How reliable and dependable are the IT systems?<br />
    i.	   How is performance monitored?<br />
    j.	   Understand the attitude towards HR and retention, incentive and employment training policies?<br />
    k.	   What policies are in place for operations covering OH&S? Training? Any ISO policies on quality?<br />
    l.	   What are the environmental credentials of the company and how does this relate to products? <br />
    m.	  Are there any legal issues outstanding with Court proceedings?</p>

<p><strong>Note:</strong><br />
This is not an exhaustive list but you as a director need to understand all the current issues of the business and if your uncertainty or "gut feel" leads down another burrow to get more information then "follow it!" In this process of due diligence, there is no such thing as a "dumb question".</p>

<p>4.	<strong>Know the business solvency position</strong> by reviewing <br />
    a.	   Current financial accounts & business plans for the current year. Look at the short term cashflows over the next 3, 6 and 12 & 18 months.<br />
    b.	    Financial Accounts from last 3 to 5 years. Ensuring you read the notes to accounts to determine if there are comments such as on "going concern", emphasis of matter, auditor qualifications and solvency. Review the minutes of the Audit Committee as well if they exist.<br />
    c.	   Ask to talk to the Auditor or CFO about the accounts and the solvency of the business in the next 2 years. Get them to explain in simple terms the solvency issues! What possible events may occur that will impact on the business viability - capital raising, cost cutting with layoffs? Contingent liabilities?<br />
    d.	   Understand what insolvent trading means? How it is interpreted? Your responsibilities to such an occurrence?<br />
    e.	   Ask the Auditor and/or CFO; Are there any tax matters outstanding with the ATO? Is the company up to date on all payments- BAS statements lodged covering PAYG, SGC and GST as well as any state payroll taxes? Are there any schemes of repayment to the ATO?<br />
    f.	   What are the capital raising plans of the business? Timing?<br />
    g.	   What are the related party transactions between directors and the company? How will they impact on the Board efficacy?<br />
    h.	   Understand your responsibilities and timing if the company goes into Administration.</p>

<p>5.	 <strong>Board structure and modus operandi. Is it what you would like to work for? </strong>It is critical to understand how this board works. Besides the boards normal process of interviewing to determine your suitability, it is a "two-way" street and you also should interview them! Ask the question again "Do I want to be part of the Board?" <br />
To do this you should invest additional time to meet with all of the board members both collectively and individually armed with your "hit list" of questions and issues to be resolved. Things to consider are<br />
    a.	   Is there a Board Charter? What are my rights under this document and do I agree with the thrust of the charter? Remember a director can seek external advice on the status of the company at its cost. Does the Charter deal with that important "safety-value" for me as a director?<br />
    b.	   Understand your director role as stated in the Constitution. Are there any shareholder side-agreements that have provisions that take precedent over the Constitution and what are they?<br />
    c.	   What is the board's view of corporate governance and is it taken seriously? Do they track the ASX Corporate Governance Principles? What are the policies on share trading, related party transactions, Disaster Recovery Plans, Document retention policies, OH&S, Environmental?<br />
    d.	   Are Board Meetings run according to a well though out agenda and adequate papers for your review delivered in a timely manner prior to the Board meeting date?<br />
    e.	   Is there an induction programme for directors? What steps are they going to take to lift my knowledge and "get me down the learning curve in a reasonable time?"<br />
    f.	   How do my skills fit in with this board? Can I make a contribution and will it be valued? <br />
    g.	   What is the board "chemistry" like? Take Board members out socially as well with your partner! You will be surprised at the partner insight as to how it will work for you!<br />
    h.	   What are the Board's ethics?<br />
    i.	   Is this a team Board with the Chairman providing appropriate leadership? Do they want to know what is going on in the business? Do they interact with the executive team? Is there adequate debate on the issues?<br />
    j.	   How is the performance of the Board managed? Informally or a formal process? <br />
    k.	   Is the pay worth the effort given that I am expected to do a minimum of 3 days work a month? Are there any other bonus or ESOP entitlements? Should they be there?<br />
    l.	    Is there an effective stakeholder communication strategy?<br />
m.	At the Board Meetings, is there a Declaration of Interests made by all directors as to their other interests with the company?</p>

<p> <strong>Summary</strong><br />
There is no magic bullet to determine your decision with respect to whether or not you should take a board position. <br />
1.	You need to do the due diligence carefully and follow a list like the one above. Make sure you do due diligence thoroughly- it will take time and if the Board objects to your process (given reasonable time) then that could be a "red flag" for you in making your decision.<br />
2.	 Review your findings of your due diligence with the Chairman, and/or, other directors as well as some-one independent that can give you perspective. Don't be afraid to go back and ask the "dumb question". You need to be informed as much as possible to understand your risks and the potential of the business in accepting a director position.<br />
3.	Remember the shareholders and regulators expect you to be knowledgeable from the beginning. If the company turns "turtle" within a short time of your appointment, you are equally as liable as the other directors.<br />
4.	If after all this due diligence and despite the "ego- lift" and the dollars, go with your "gut feel!"</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Palliser Report- Good Oil Conference, Freemantle W.A. September 2007 </title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2007/09/palliser_report_good_oil_confe.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=31" title="Palliser Report- Good Oil Conference, Freemantle W.A. September 2007 " />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2009:/tips//2.31</id>
    
    <published>2007-09-15T00:15:30Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T01:56:33Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Palliser Strategic Management Pty Ltd ACN 082-051-812 www.palliser.com.au Palliser Report- Good Oil Conference September 2007 15th September 2007 The annual Good Oil Conference in Fremantle continues to grow in importance as a venue for providing a window on the industry...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Palliser Strategic Management Pty Ltd<br />
ACN 082-051-812<br />
www.palliser.com.au</p>

<p><strong>Palliser Report- Good Oil Conference September 2007             15th September 2007</strong></p>

<p>The annual Good Oil Conference in Fremantle continues to grow in importance as a venue for providing a window on the industry for small to mid cap companies and what is driving their exploitation successes and profitability.  The importance of the 2-day "beauty-parade" event is demonstrated by the significant industry participation (about 50% investors and 50% companies) with 45 companies detailing their strategies and financial position, economic forecasts and contribution to the hydrocarbon industry. However, with a few exceptions, the calibre of presentations was poor this year compared to previous years.</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p>The following observations are made with reference to the Disclaimer below<br />
1.	<strong>Industry direction- why the move overseas!</strong><br />
a.	There is plenty of cash chasing limited opportunities in Australia with significant exploration that can be "company makers". Mid-cap companies are moving to tougher financial jurisdictions but with substantially higher exploration potential in Asia, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and China, because they provide the upside and markets for hydrocarbon commercialisation and can be managed in the same Australian time zones with easier access which improves business efficiency.<br />
b.	The head-long rush by Australian small and mid-cap companies to the USA is now muted as those companies who moved there in 2005 and 2006, with few exceptions and despite rapid cashflow from discoveries, are still not well understood by the Australian equity market (many comparative studies show why many of these companies are trading below net asset backing and should have higher prices!). In addition, the reserve size of the discoveries from the known hydrocarbon fairways onshore and in the Gulf State waters in southern USA are unlikely to provide the reserve base that will be a "company maker". Exploitation in these areas requires constant re-investment of production dollars to maintain a company's reserve and asset position. Hence the need to look in other basins in other jurisdiction to fuel significant growth.<br />
c.	In reviewing the presentations over the last 3 years, this year there was a distinct dearth of new ideas and strategies, particularly from those positioned in the USA. There was a tendency for some of the companies to rehash the stories of the previous years with little insight on how they would make the next "great leap" forward. One may be forgiven for thinking they were at a super market buying groceries as there was a lot of "Fig Jam" for sale. For small-caps to be taken seriously, they need to show the strategies and the results - not stress how good they are!</p>

<p>2.	<strong>Pricing and Industry Optimism. </strong>There was an acceptance that<br />
a.	Oil prices will remain at or near US$70/bbl in the foreseeable future given the continued deterioration of the global supply / demand imbalance for liquids production; this being aggravated by increasing global liquids demand underpinned by rising living standards in Asia, particularly in China. <br />
b.	The forward price curve for 12-month NYMEX crude contracts shows prices to remain in excess of US$75/bbl. This 12-month forward curve price has been increasing over the last 4 years in response to substantial changes in petroleum demand, particularly in Asia, and is not indicating a price plateau or "bubble burst" in the oil price. This pricing signal is a key determinant in using cashflow to generate new and alternate exploitation options.</p>

<p><br />
3.	<strong>Global markets. </strong>The macro demand issues driving the market are - <br />
a.	Global GDP growth will be 5.25% p.a. and 4.75% p.a.  in 2007 & 2008 respectively with a split 75% for underdeveloped countries and 25% from developed countries. <br />
b.	Global demand for oil and gas to 2030 is estimated to grow at 3.6% p.a. and 4.35% p.a. respectively; for liquids, demand rising from over 80 MMBOPD now to 140 MMBOPD in 2030.  Of these growth factors, 1/3 of the global increase in oil demand is from China. China is "in transition" with strong GDP growth over the last 5 years greater than 10% p.a. This high level of GDP growth is forecast to continue for a least  the next 2 to 3 years,  which will underpin a burgeoning domestic economy with discretionary expenditure estimated to grow from circa $US 2,000 to US$ 5,000 per capita by 2016. <br />
	Empirical correlations in other country economies with past rising discretionary incomes show this rising standard of living will lead to higher automotive growth and petroleum demand (as forecasted above from 80 MMBOPD to 140 MMBOPD by 2030) with 60% of the demand related to transport - primarily automotive use. Car sales are forecast to reach 1660 million in 2030 from 939 million in 2010. China's market share of the increase will be from 11% to 23% of total cars global sales (380 million) over this period. In the absence of major and sustained exploration success, these facts point to continued upwards pressure on the oil price.<br />
c.	In the absence of major and sustained exploration success, these facts point to continued pressure on liquids pricing as the market adjusts to the forecast demand scenarios as noted in point 2.<br />
d.	The Australian exchange rate is expected to be valued at around AUS$0.85: US$ for 2008. This appreciation in the exchange rate will ameliorate the rises in crude prices to the Australian consumer and a level of AUD$0.75: US$ would push the bowser price over $1.50 to 1.60 per litre!<br />
	(Data source: Westpac and Paterson Securities)</p>

<p>4.	<strong>CSG provides the excitement to the gas market!</strong><br />
The market can best be summarized as follows:-<br />
a.	In Queensland, companies have contracted large acreage positions with significant hydrocarbon potential. Increased certified 2P reserves are being achieved for commitments to sales contracts for retail and power generation. Assets are being commercialised. The industry is addressing technology issues, such as non- potable water production, that improves profitability of operations. 60% of QLD gas production is CSG and its market share will likely increase with increased reserve certification.<br />
b.	There are extensive exploration and work programmes addressing stratospheric claims of potential reserves of about 6 to 10TCF as companies are committing substantial budgets and resources to "prove-up" and commercialise this important resource.<br />
c.	The industry is being innovative in seeking "value-add"  processes to generate trading margin as  there will be limited opportunity for substantial price improvement because there is no external pricing source to the Queensland gas market given the potential reserve supply. Improved pricing will come from processing "value adds" – LNG, power generation, CTL etc. This will also diversify pricing risks based on well head values only.  Generation of carbon credits will enhance project economics.<br />
d.	There are 2 LNG projects planned for Gladstone based on CSG, subject to reserve commercialisation, by Arrow Energy NL and Santos Limited. Both are intending to service the export markets of Asia from 2010 to 2015. These are new and critical developments for the commercialisation of CSG.<br />
e.	There are tentative plans to increase the pipeline infrastructure that will enhance CSG projects and the commercialisation to markets serving the Gladstone area and mid-NSW. If the CSG fields are developed, "pipeline geology" will ensure additional reserves.</p>

<p>5.	<strong>Cooper Basin consolidation</strong>- The time is rapidly approaching when there will be significant consolidation of Cooper Basin producers- rationalization of the administrations of companies chasing fewer sizable deals. The companies operating in the Cooper Basin generally have low reserve indexes (less than 3 years), but high short term cashflow which needs to be re-invested in reserve replacement exploitation that will not come from the Cooper Basin. Hence, companies are now changing strategies to use the high short-term cashflow (mainly derived from price) to obtain exploration positions overseas in "unexplored basins" as they strategically position themselves in Asia, Africa and Middle East hoping to build sizable reserves & production.<br />
Shareholders with few exceptions are not rewarded through dividend flows and so value will only be derived from market plays on the stock market or from consolidation. This will be a different risk position for investors and their collective reaction to these new exploration areas will be interesting to monitor!</p>

<p>6.	<strong>LNG options for PNG </strong>are gathering pace with a possible ExxonMobil-led consortium continuing commercialisation studies for a plant complex to be located on the Papua Gulf  leveraging off the existing oil export infrastructure, at an estimated cost of US$ 9 to 10 billion with production targeted for  2012- 2014  at a rate of 6- 7 MTPA. This is underpinned by substantial reserve certification and high liquids content to justify the economics of the project. The commercial viability is being evaluated against a strong demand for LNG - with recent contracts priced at US$ 8.00/GJ (US$60/BBBL) - and Asian market opportunities post 2010. All signs point to FEED decision by year end 2007 and regulatory approvals are well advanced.<br />
It adds a strong dimension to PNG gas exploitation and there is increased interest and activity in exploration of new permits and tentative plans for the development of "stranded assets", but based on the ExxonMobil consortium decision.</p>

<p>7.	<strong>Company valuations</strong> Industry data suggested that valuations have risen significantly based on the strength of the oil price.<br />
a.	Purchase price for hydrocarbon reserves has increased 30% since 2004 to US $ 9.70/BOE<br />
b.	ASX listed resource companies are likely to have P/E ratios on earnings of June 08- X14.7 and X13.5 for June 09 against a long term average of X18.6  (Patersons)<br />
These parameters indicate likely softening in values for the oil and gas sector.</p>

<p>8.	<strong>Companies that are positioned in the growth areas</strong><br />
Over the last 5 years it is interesting to see how the industry has been transformed from an exploration focus with limited cashflow to a position where companies with significant cashflow and reserves can sustain aggressive exploitation programs to build shareholder wealth. For example:<br />
(1)	AWE with long-life reserves and burgeoning cashflow with Tui field                                        commencing production;<br />
(2)	ROC with a strong reserve position and production of 10,000 bopd in<br />
 2007 plus strong cashflow and Angola and China exploration upside;<br />
(3)	Nexus Energy NL with projects, financial resources and cashflow generated from 40,000 boepd from 2012; <br />
(4)	Arrow Energy with its substantial CSG resources to evaluate the<br />
 feasibility of LNG to Asia markets around 2015;<br />
(5)	Horizon Oil NL with net production at 6000 bopd by 2010- proven<br />
                                    reserves underpin share price, but substantial exploration upside in<br />
                                    Offshore China, Thailand and PNG;<br />
(6)	First Australian Resources Ltd (FAR) with exploration exposure in<br />
                                    Senegal- 7 leads with potential 1 billion barrels with about 50% working<br />
                                    interest.<br />
Geoffrey Widmer CEO Palliser Group: 03-9819-3995(p), 0419-310-601(m)<br />
 <strong>Disclaimer</strong><br />
The above observations are not recommendations to acquire shares in any of the companies. Individuals should seek independent advice based on their own circumstances and risk profile when investing in any of these shares. Information about these companies was in part derived from presentations from the RIU Conference which contained forecasts and assumptions about pricing, production, costs foreign exchange rates and risks which have not been derived or verified by Palliser Strategic Management Pty Ltd A(Palliser@). Palliser takes no responsibility for the derivation of these numbers.</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Meeting efficiency- a key issue in Corporate Governance </title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2007/07/meeting_efficiency_a_key_issue.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=32" title="Meeting efficiency- a key issue in Corporate Governance " />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2007:/tips//2.32</id>
    
    <published>2007-07-10T11:02:17Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:03:30Z</updated>
    
    <summary>In the Jun 21-27 07 BRW, Leo D&apos;Angelo Fisher wrote an article on &quot;The madness of meetings&quot;. It is an important topic as if meetings are done right throughout the business, it enhances both the corporate governance and hence the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>In the Jun 21-27 07 BRW,  Leo D'Angelo Fisher wrote an article on <strong>"The madness of meetings"</strong>. It is an important topic as if meetings are done right throughout the business, it enhances both the corporate governance and hence the business value, by utilising human resources efficiently and achieving outputs that are accountable. With flatter organisations and more democratic decision making in organisations, there is a tendency for meetings to lack leadership and focus as the meetings are a more a "talk feast"- those that run the meetings don't want to be scene as "bureaucratic" by directing the meetings. Executives are confusing what leadership is about and they don't want appear to be a "manager" as against being "enlightened"; at times leadership needs to shift gears to manage meetings and follow process.</p>

<p>The article by  Leo D'Angelo Fisher on <strong>The madness of meetings </strong> canvasses these issues and Palliser was invited to provide its views on meeting Leadership and the importance Board meeting practice to set the meeting culture of the business.</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>LEADERSHIP</strong><br />
<strong>The madness of meetings</strong><br />
<em>Meetings with no real purpose can lead to wasted time on a grand scale for some organisations.</em> By Leo D'Angelo Fisher.</p>

<p>MOST EMPLOYEES HAVE attended them and wondered why. Most have endured them, thinking about more pressing tasks left unattended. They are, of course, meetings – a seemingly permanent feature of modern corporate life – and more often than not they don't need to happen.<br />
Meetings probably have more to do with entrenched habits and cultures than a reasonable expectation of achieving a useful outcome, organisational psychologist and principal of Brisbane corporate performance consultant NovumAVI, Dr Robert Lake, says.<br />
Some managers are "meeting happy" and often oblivious to the capacity of meetings to waste time and eat into productivity, while others genuinely try to make meetings more effective. "A more useful consideration might be: do we need to have this meeting?" Lake says.<br />
Given the prevailing meetings culture, he believes meetings have become a sanctuary for "people who don't have enough work to do".<br />
"I have sat in meetings where memberships have grown like Topsy," he says. "There will be a number of people listening at these meetings, but not really contributing. It might be a way for these people to be involved, or it might be a way of wasting time, but either way I think it does become a cultural thing. There are useful meetings, and at the other end of the continuum there are useless meetings. What happens in between that diminishes the value of a meeting?"<br />
Inevitably, the problem is that too many meetings are being held, which exacerbates the perception that meetings don't achieve anything. Many of these meetings take place, Lake suspects, because there remains status associated with the meeting – or more to the point, calling meetings. "That's what I'd call the status meeting, where you have someone saying, 'I'm calling a meeting because I can; I am an important person.' But if that person is not focused on outputs, the meeting will wander. A meeting has got to be linked to outcomes."<br />
Lake says another factor that has contributed to ineffective meetings has been a tendency in some organisations to democratise meetings: companies are still wedded to holding meetings, but they seek to make them less formal. Meetings are led by managers who are either deliberately informal, or lack the skills to chair a meeting. Either way, the result can be that the person heading the meeting is not in control.<br />
"One of the side effects of flattened organisational structures and more democratic ways is that people have a reluctance to lead. There is a cultural groundswell of dealing with things through consultation and collaboration in organisations, which ends up meaning no one's in charge.</p>

<p><em>“<strong>The best meetings occur when there is a firm structure. More formal is better than less formal. Chairing a meeting is a leadership role."<br />
Geoff Widmer, chief executive of Melbourne consultant Palliser Strategic Management, agrees. "Leadership of meetings is crucial. Some of the disciplines [of running a meeting] have gone out of the meeting structure because people don't want to appear bureaucratic," says Widmer, who is also a professional company secretary specialising in small company boards.<br />
The most common reason for ineffective meetings, he says, is the lack of direction from the chair. He recommends that companies look to boards for best practice. "Good boards are well structured, they have agendas, minutes are taken, and action items are recorded and summarised at the end of the meeting. Middle managers who have the opportunity to do so would do well to follow what happens at that level. At the end of the meeting, the chairman should summarise the action points, who's going to follow through on those action points, and the date by which they must do so."</p>

<p>A meeting also needs to be "targeted and focused". Attendance should be strictly limited to people who are involved in the decisions being made. One way of ensuring that meeting skills are passed on within an organisation is to ensure that executives with operational responsibilities have the opportunity to make presentations at board meetings. They in turn take the discipline and structure of these meetings to their own staff meetings.<br />
"Boards should represent best practice. They set the meetings culture of the business, which is why I encourage boards to include relevant executives to present on their specialty areas," Widmer says.<br />
</em></strong><br />
The managing director of Melbourne information technology services company ExpressApps, Dr Mark Harrigan, says it is important that companies are prepared to not have meetings. While the company does have regularly scheduled meetings, the meetings don't go ahead unless there is an agenda.<br />
"We do not have a written policy but we do have a practice that says formal regular meetings should be kept to a minimum. Scheduled meetings don't go ahead if there's nothing to discuss. Basically, nobody is allowed to have a scheduled meeting without a purpose. It's good to have meetings in the calendar, but people need to have the discipline to say 'let's not meet' even if they've got a meeting scheduled."<br />
ExpressApps has three regularly scheduled meetings: a monthly "all-company" meeting (the business employs 25 people) and fortnightly meetings for the sales and engineering teams.<br />
The monthly meetings take place as scheduled – even without Harrigan – because it is an opportunity for staff to get together to discuss business and personal issues affecting them.<br />
"The sole purpose of the company meetings is to have a get-together," Harrigan says. "It's an opportunity to catch up. Everyone needs to know where everyone fits in the organisation, so that kind of gathering is important."</p>

<p><strong>Some practical tips for meetings!</strong></p>

<p><em><strong>Get down to business</strong></em><br />
• Schedule the meeting off the hour (for example, 10.10) and declare its length beforehand. This encourages punctuality and erodes the "a meeting lasts for an hour" mentality. There is no reason, other than habit, why a meeting should start at 10.00 rather than 10.05.<br />
• At the meeting starting time, create the expectation of discussion times and decisions to be taken, start talking about the first agenda item – don't stop for latecomers, don't backtrack for them, and don't acknowledge their lateness. After one or two of these meetings they will learn to turn up on time.<br />
•  As the meeting closes, summarise the key points discussed and resolutions made. It is critical to allocate action items, who is responsible and agree the time  for resolution of outstanding matters. Remember after the meeting follow-up as accountability is critical for improving meeting culture! <br />
• At the end of the meeting, declare it closed and stand up – this signals both that the meeting has finished and that it is time to leave.</p>

<p>Source of Tips: BRW Leadership article including NovumAVI and Palliser Strategic Management Pty Ltd.</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Barriers to Exit</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2007/06/barriers_to_exit_1.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=26" title="Barriers to Exit" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2007:/tips//2.26</id>
    
    <published>2007-06-15T01:02:29Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:05:24Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Barriers to Exit The real drivers of sustainable business and value creation Businesses often focus too much of their reliance on strategies to re-inforce barriers to entry into their market space by believing they will sustain &quot;monopoly&quot; pricing in the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Geoffrey Widmer</name>
        <uri>http://www.palliser.com.au/</uri>
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Barriers to Exit</strong><br />
<em>The real drivers of sustainable business and value creation<br />
</em><br />
Businesses often focus too much of their reliance on strategies to re-inforce barriers to entry into their market space by believing they will sustain "monopoly" pricing in the long term if they focus their activities on the "shoring-up" market entry barriers. These barriers are created from superior products or services and IT systems in conjunction with IP and patents. They are a competitive advantage in a point in time in a dynamic market. They can lead to a false sense of security and sentiment within the company as the focus is on their pricing power at the expense of customer satisfaction. </p>

<p>In time competitors can leverage customers away, as without customer focus, these barriers usually only provide temporary market dominance as a combination of rapidly changing technology, advanced communications systems and shifting consumer demands, substantially reduce the product life cycles of existing products and provide new real alternatives that compete with your market dominance albeit at a better value proposition. By trying to constantly “shore-up” the barriers to entry, one of the real targets of a company’s activities- namely enhancing existing customer satisfaction, is ignored at the peril of the company.</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Barriers to Exit- How are they created?</strong><br />
Customers focus comes from ensuring that your products and services offered to customers are embedded into the customers systems and culture. To achieve this position, you need to build an interdependent relationship to a point where you are critical to the customers and their success. This relationship provides important "value-adds" which support your pricing policies and ensures repeat sales are achieved at significantly lower marketing cost! It sustains the business and you can now grow the customer base as the need to put "fingers in the barriers" to stem the "customer leaks" is dramatically reduced!<br />
For the customer to change to a new supplier at this point incurs a large corporate dislocation- time, effort and resources and for an uncertain gain! It is a Barrier to Exit.</p>

<p><strong>Barriers to Exit</strong> create a focus on the customer and make it very difficult decision to change once you are established within their business. To ensure that you reach that position a company must <br />
1.	Provide a high grade quality offering after the initial contract is won!<br />
2.	Over deliver and under promise on services and contract requirements- actions and support are paramount!<br />
3.	Keep the customer at the technical edge of your offering by providing upgrades regularly at competitive pricing.<br />
4.	If problems occur – fix them and leave the blame game to others! Respect the customer's time.<br />
5.	Partner, if needed, with them by sharing risks for new products and systems within your core competencies.<br />
6.	Develop professional and ethical relationships at multiple points in the organisation so you can act if issues arise. Be frank and open about issues with fact based reasons for relationship problems and tackle them directly.<br />
7.	Understand their culture; management and business model- develop a "play-book" on key customers.<br />
In short, develop an inter-dependency with them that makes the <strong>Barriers to Exit</strong> to insurmountable. Wrap "management- blanket" around them a give the customer a corporate cuddle so they know you care and support their business.</p>

<p><strong>Barriers to Exit are the real drivers of sustainable business and value creation as they underpin your performance.<br />
</strong></p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Leadership in Europe</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2007/03/leadership_in_europe.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=33" title="Leadership in Europe" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2007:/tips//2.33</id>
    
    <published>2007-03-21T08:49:01Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:08:22Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Leadership in Europe—it is the courage to express a long-term vision against the populist tide and to the detriment of personal safety. Former President Jose Maria Aznar of Spain has experienced international terrorism personally. Although he has left office, he...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Leadership in Europe</strong>—it is the courage to express a long-term vision against the populist tide and to the detriment of personal safety.</p>

<p>Former President Jose Maria Aznar of Spain has experienced international terrorism personally. Although he has left office, he continues to actively promote and to bring into sharp focus those political and economic issues and policies in Europe that, if left unaltered, are likely to have negative global implications for all Western Democracies and cultures. Such is the leadership path that Aznar has demonstrated by continuing to engage the global leaders with his views.</p>

<p>I had the opportunity to hear the former President on Monday 19th March 07 deliver a blunt and passionate message on Spanish relationships with Europe, the issues confronting Europe for its long term survival, the importance to Europe of the USA Atlantic alliance and the impact terrorism on all of the western world. As he said "I am in my second world (life) after surviving a terrorist attack in April 1995". Aznar is eminently qualified as an experienced European Leader to provide stimulating and thought provoking commentary on global issues as they impact on Europe and us all.</p>

<p>When President, Aznar was leader of the conservative Partido Popular (PP) and was in power for eight years from 1996 to 2004. He led Spain through a dramatic period of substantial economic growth via business renaissance and the support of the European Community. He also headed significant political change to confront ETA terrorism and develop alternative international political alliances, notably with the USA and the Middle East.</p>

<p>Spanish influence, both politically and internationally, grew under his watch.</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p>In his speech, Aznar outlined five important policy areas for European long-term survival:-<br />
1.  Dealing with terrorism by defining the enemy and then waging the battle against those terrorist elements.<br />
2.  Overcoming the current political correctness and paralysis in Europe because the current leadership is incapable of making strategic and difficult decisions to defend traditional western European values. <br />
3. Understanding the European demographic picture and likely future changes. He cites dramatic changes in immigration over then next 10 to 20 years. Immigrants are expected to increase from 12% to 40% of European population during that period with the consequential impact on values, culture and religious mix. This trend has already contributed to the decline in Europe.<br />
4.  Ensuring energy independence through less reliance on oil from the Middle East and gas from Russia and North Africa by developing options that include renewable energy and nuclear energy sources. This is an important tie to climate change issues where Europe must take a lead.<br />
5.  Strengthening the influence of Europe by promoting stronger Atlantic ties with the USA. Europe should work with the USA and not be a counter weight to it. It is vital to forge an 'Atlantic Europe'. </p>

<p>Aznar went further and said that Europe has lost power and influence over the last 20 years. During that time Europe has grown faster than the USA, but structural problems have contributed to its decline. In particular Europe has: <br />
1.  collectively failed to liberalise its economies,<br />
2.  allowed mistrust to fester on key policy areas of foreign relations,<br />
3.  not defended the importance of the market economy by allowing a "flood of protection", and<br />
4.  allowed the increase of anti- USA sentiment to influence decisions and activities.</p>

<p>In providing a direction, he states that Europe should develop the posture of an Atlantic Europe by working more closely with the USA and not try to be a counter weight to it. Through this process, Europe would become part of an integrated market which would promote greater trade liberialistion and enhance the values of the European democracies. This alliance would lead to a greater global influence for the European Union ("EU"). As an example of this closer Atlantic alliance, Aznar believes that the role of NATO should be re-directed at fighting global terrorism; Australia as a beneficiary of this policy should be a member of NATO.</p>

<p>He spoke with great confidence about the achievements under his presidency in Spain, pointing out that as a result of his government's economic, social and public expenditure reforms, the Spanish GDP grew by 64% during his time in office. He notes that prior to his presidency (1975-1996) there was a zero net jobs growth. However, over the eight years following his election, five million jobs were created, the economy grew at an average of 3.4% p.a., budgets were balanced, public debt fell from 7% GDP to almost 0% and the average Spanish income increased from 78% to 87% of the average income of the EU. Finally to-day, Spain is the 8th G8 global economy and is the 6th net capital exporter. </p>

<p>In response to my question about how Europe could achieve energy independence, Aznar said that there is an indispensable need to eliminate energy dependency and to diversify away from traditional gas supplies from Russia and North Africa and oil from the Middle East. This could be done by adopting additional supply options for nuclear and renewable energy. He added that this is best response for addressing global climate change issues where the EU should take a leading role.</p>

<p>The former president speaks with a direct and forthright manner. He embraces lateral thoughts to stimulate thinking about ways to combat terrorism both in Spain and globally.<br />
Whilst he did not mention this directly, he greatly changed the Spanish foreign policy by re-directing Spain's focus to North America away from reliance on France and Germany. He looked to moderate Arab States and to South America for engagement on his political thoughts. He makes no apologies for Spain's involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan as he sees these as important planks in fighting global terrorism. </p>

<p>His PP Government's economic and political record gives him the credentials to continue to lead the wider political debate and to speak passionately about the future of his Spain and Europe. Aznar is one of the great modern European leaders whose views should be considered and debated widely. Melbourne was privileged to have President Aznar here and to have the opportunity to listen to his thought provoking global views.</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>The Importance of information for Cashflow Management</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2006/05/the_importance_of_information_1.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=23" title="The Importance of information for Cashflow Management" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2006:/tips//2.23</id>
    
    <published>2006-05-03T11:33:36Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:10:43Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The following is an extract from an article which was written by Leo D&apos;Angelo Fisher titled &quot;Managing the ebbs and flows of cash&quot; for the March 2006 edition of Westpac’s magazine Good Business. As CEO of the Palliser Group, Geoff...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Geoffrey Widmer</name>
        <uri>http://www.palliser.com.au/</uri>
    </author>
            <category term="Business Tips" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The following is an extract from an article which was written by Leo D'Angelo Fisher titled "Managing the ebbs and flows of cash" for the March 2006 edition of Westpac’s magazine Good Business. As CEO of the Palliser Group, Geoff Widmer contributed to the article below.<br />
Beginning of Extract from Westpac Article…….</p>

<p>"Cash flow! It's the lifeblood of any business. Big or small, the ability of a business to generate sufficient cash to pay its debts is critical to its long-term growth prospects. Sustainability starts with a healthy cash flow, but like any aspect of running a business, cash flow is a discipline to be managed. How well you manage that cash flow makes the difference between survival and prosperity. Survival is your baseline, achieving prosperity is realising the full potential of your business." </p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Palliser Comment</strong><br />
The article goes on to detail different options for increasing cashflow from improvement in accounts receivable management, debtor factoring, invoice discounting to inventory financing and the Westpac financial products that are available to the SME market. </p>

<p>"However and whatever the finance option, decisions about cash flow management should always be based on the best information available about the business' operations, says Geoffrey Widmer, CEO of small-business advisers, Palliser Strategic Management.</p>

<p>"Business owners are striving to balance the competing needs often without accurate information," Widmer says. "They don't know what their real liquidity position is, options to improve it or how the banks will react to their requests for additional loans."</p>

<p>Widmer says businesses should test scenarios by asking "what if" questions against existing financial data to arrive at a better understanding of their working capital and cash flow positions. </p>

<p>These questions can be put, he says, in a process using modeling tools to "change the commercial levers" and simulate different financial and growth strategies before committing resources to new strategies.</p>

<p>"Use a planning tool to optimise strategies by developing different options by asking the question 'what if' the trading margin is higher through a bigger spend on marketing," he says. </p>

<p>"Model lower receivable days, higher expenses and other scenarios so that you can 'goal-seek' on the financial outputs and immediately develop a mix of strategies."</p>

<p><strong>Main Message from Business Tip</strong><br />
Geoff Widmer's main point is that cashflow requirements need to be tested against different scenarios/options but more importantly, business owners need to take the time to think about the different options in improving working capital. The Palliser Business Diagnostic can work with business owners to give that understanding and develop different options for securing improved cashflow! <br />
Call Palliser Group (Geoff Widmer) to understand how we can assist you in improving working capital management on 9819-3995. </p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Options for Strategy</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2003/08/options_for_strategy.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=10" title="Options for Strategy" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2003:/tips//2.10</id>
    
    <published>2003-08-01T12:24:03Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:12:11Z</updated>
    
    <summary>When working within businesses, it is apparent that they often have few if any alternate options to manage their supply chain relationships and target markets/clients when implementing their strategic plans for improving the growth and profitability. It is important to...</summary>
    <author>
        <name></name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>When working within businesses, it is apparent that they often have few if any alternate options to manage their supply chain relationships and target markets/clients when implementing their strategic plans for improving the growth and profitability. It is important to have a <strong>number of options </strong>on one issue at one time in different stages of discussions, so you have leverage in your negotiations. It is crucial to continue to development them until you have signed on the "bottom-line". It is amazing how quickly you can achieve your commercial terms if a third party knows there is somebody else also trying for a seat at the profit share table. These<strong> alternative options </strong>can come through your network and they often bring new ideas & relationships that enhance your operations. Mentors usually have vital contacts that "open doors" and also ask critical questions about the options you are considering & assist in sorting out the "chaff from the hay"!<br />
Take the time and opportunity to invest in seeking options for the critical components of your business. Go to "Tips of the Month" on the Palliser Website ( July 2002 and April 2003) to read how partnerships are important to developing options and why they are important in profit improvement.<br />
As mentioned last time, it help you meet the challenges of the "roller coaster" market and the "era of constant uncertainty".Option development should always be part of your innovative commercial solutions to achieve your goals for 2003 and beyond!</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Margin Analysis- Improved Profitability</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2003/04/margin_analysis_improved_profi.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=9" title="Margin Analysis- Improved Profitability" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2003:/tips//2.9</id>
    
    <published>2003-04-01T12:19:31Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:13:21Z</updated>
    
    <summary>When business networking, business leaders usually describe their businesses in terms of sales turnover and not margins &amp; hence profits. Further competitors&apos; margins and industry best practice are usually not front of mind! The key determinant of generating cashflow &amp;...</summary>
    <author>
        <name></name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>When business networking, business leaders usually describe their businesses in terms of sales turnover and  not <strong>margins & hence profits</strong>. Further competitors' margins and industry best practice are usually not front of mind!  The key determinant of generating cashflow & business value is the <strong>gross profit margin </strong>where options for "value-adds" for product/services can offset price competition and smart purchasing, rebates & trading terms can lower cost of sales. Without a focus on these determinants, the flexibility to re-act to price competition and meet fixed overheads is reduced. Businesses again need to think & describe their <strong>monthly & YTD overhead cost performance</strong>, so that their resultant EBIT return is benchmarked to industry best practice. This EBIT return is the driver for the business value! <br />
For businesses, especially in the SME sector, industry bench marks that can monitor performance at the levels of  <strong>gross profit & overhead cost  performance,  should be part of the suite of monthly financial reports reviewed by the business leaders! </strong><br />
Give this area some focus and watch the "bottom-line" improve by generating cash resources from existing clients, to meet the challenges of the "roller coaster" market and they should be part of your innovative commercial solutions to achieve your goals for 2003 and beyond. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Partnerships</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/2002/12/partnerships.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.palliser.com.au/Type/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=2/entry_id=8" title="Partnerships" />
    <id>tag:www.palliser.com.au,2002:/tips//2.8</id>
    
    <published>2002-12-01T12:18:12Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-22T02:14:08Z</updated>
    
    <summary>One of the key fundamentals to growing your business, is the vibrancy of partnerships between your Team Members and other key stakeholders.These relationships if allowed to flourish, generate the competitive difference and culture that makes businesses successful. In October, I...</summary>
    <author>
        <name></name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.palliser.com.au/tips/">
        <![CDATA[<p>One of the key fundamentals to growing your business, is the vibrancy of partnerships between your Team Members and other key stakeholders.These relationships if allowed to flourish, generate the competitive difference and culture that makes businesses successful. In October, I attended the 2002 Society Petroleum Engineers Asia & Pacific Oil & Gas Conference in Melbourne, where in a key note address, a head of Mobil Exxon USA, promoted the idea of partnerships to win new business. "In the past we got the technology and people right but we did no build sustainable partnerships- this will be key to our future success". <br />
It seems odd that a company of Mobil Exxon size is now promoting the importance of partnerships for successful business but an important realisation that business norms are changing-- it is so simple and obvious but it is essential! If they are successful that will make them an even more formidable competitor than they are to-day!<br />
For 2003 in planning your business goals, just as the Federal Treasurer also has shown the importance of being part of <strong>partnerships </strong>with the business sector to promote economic performance, you should consider the importance of <strong>partnerships </strong>and sound and consistent policy, not only to your team members but your other key stakeholders. Your team members are critical to leveraging your Intellectual Property to creating a competitive difference in the market and a committed work team to prosecute your corporate goals!<br />
Try it and develop <strong>partnerships </strong>that thrive on communication, accountability and rewarding personal effort. This will be a key element in your business growth and profitability and should be part of your innovative commercial solutions to achieve your goals for 2003 and beyond.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

</feed> 


