Palliser Business Commentary

The Palliser Report is a compilation of the discussions and views expressed at this Diggers Resource Conference and the observations of the Palliser Group.

a. South American Diggers Conference: This Resource Conference was one of the first in Australia to focus on the resource issues in South America- its potential, its economies and the business opportunities. It had important representation for the Ambassadors from Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Mexico and Chile who gave passionate presentations about their respective countries dealing with legacy issues and perceptions. They "show cased" the potential, economic and political performance and confronted the perceptions of problems in governance, economics and structural reform.
Company testimonials provided very positive examples of resource potential, commerciality & success and how to operate with "in-country" management and expertise to maximise the success of the venture.
Currently there is no "appetite" for funding resource developments in Latin America from Australian markets. However there are some companies which have the potential to provide exploitation results that will start to change investor attitudes.
As noted in the discussion on capital markets, it is only within the last 3 years that investor attitude to funding via ASX listings in West African resource developments has changed to the point where the ASX and AIM(UK) now provide about 50% each of the equity capital for African mineral developments by Australian companies. This change occurred based on successful exploitation campaigns of Australian companies that have resonated well with these capital markets to generate some investor confidence.
b. Conference Focus: The Conference highlighted the advances in the area (South America) in terms of leadership role in resource exploitation during the last decade underpinned by advances in national economic performance, improved government regulation and an acknowledgement of the substantial resource potential in copper, iron ore, zinc/silver, coal, gold and precious metals.
Latin America is highly prospective, underpinned by attracting about 26% of global resource exploitation budgets in 2010 (Australia 13%).
Latin America from Mexico to Chile is considered a resource rich province with some of the regions vastly underexplored. Estimates suggest that only 30% of the landmass of Brazil, 1.4% of Peru and 51% of Colombia has been actively explored for resource wealth. There are continuing opportunities for successful exploitation strategies.
Mining strategies for Peru, Chile and Brazil aim to attract the multinational to develop their resources while Mexico and Colombia are encouraging mid-size companies to participate in their resource development with the objective of maximising development through diversity of companies and ideas.
c. Changing attitudes: An important part of the Conference theme related to the focus on all stakeholder considerations when doing business there. It is the expected norm for business behaviour to exploit permits and discoveries employing an active community consultation process, maintaining respect for cultural issues, adopting sustainable exploitation practices, adhering to the environmental codes practices and understanding the law and regulations on these aspects.
Access to and judicial use of water resources was a key consideration in developing an exploitation strategy that was consistent with local needs.
Governments are developing innovative investment policies to encourage new exploration activity, such as Chile with its Fenix Fund, to give SME explorers access to funds for 50 projects over the next 10 years. These are the companies with the new ideas to challenge the existing paradigms!
d. Latin America's Core: Perception is not reality in these important countries led by Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico where current GDP growth for the region was about 5.1% in 2010 (OECD about 2.3%). The estimate for 2011 is 3.5% (OECD about 1.7%) but these countries are not immune from the effects of an EU contagion and /or a slowdown in China demand as is evident in the 4th quarter 2011.
Composition-The region has two languages (Spanish in 16 countries and Portuguese in Brazil) with about 540 million people (aging and needing skills upgrades). However there is expected to be improving literacy and living standards over the coming decade and the collective economies will have a GDP that is about 80% of mainland China's GDP. This is an impressive regional market with 80% of its trade done outside the region on a north-south axis. On the other hand it has a growing dependency on exports to China and Asia away from traditional North American and EU markets.
A key issue for the region is infrastructure development in all countries to underpin energy supply, health, transportation and urban growth and improvements to the environment. Improved transparency will increase productivity and sustainability. Wealth distribution is critical.
The region has 6 countries that are considered "investment grade" Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Mexico and Panama.
There is political stability in these major resource countries that underpins investor risk taking. It is apparent from the Ambassadors' presentations that this is a core theme to new investors in the region, i.e., political stability, market related fiscal regimes, investor rights are critical to their national investment and growth strategies. In essence, the global market place and its demands for administrative transparency, the ability to earn returns commensurate with risk and adhere to growing demands of CSO, is ensuring that each country has a competitive regime to attract FDI.
There have been significant changes over the last decade with the commencement of structural reforms in resource fiscal terms, protection of investment rights and intellectual property rights as well as banking (including repatriation of dividends and taxation), but the challenge is to build on this start.
The challenges for the region are to promote wealth distribution, improve educational and skill opportunities and resist the temptation for protectionist policies when trade agreements "kick-in" as the importance of China to their economies grows. Finally, the balance between community needs and stakeholder returns needs to be attuned to cultural issues.

1. Observations from the APPEA Conference
a. APPEA Conference 2011.
Impact. This Conference had a vitality about it that reflected the growth of the industry around gas developments, an attendance of 3200 + delegates, as well as an excellent Industry Exhibition of skills, capabilities and advanced technologies that drive the exploitation industry. It showcased the importance of WA to the industry. The State accounts for 67% of the annual production valued at A$19.0 billion, currently 44% of the Australian annual exploration expenditure and estimated to increase to 60% by 2020. With gas reserves in excess of 160TCF, a major share of the estimated LNG production by 2020 of 60 MTPA nationally, a likely surge in investment of some $170 billion over the next 5 years in LNG and iron ore projects and their associated infrastructure needs, WA accounts for about 70% of the resource developments in Australia and is therefore a "powerhouse" of the Australia's prosperity.
Tax revenue sharing. WA can and has demanded that the Federal Government review the taxation sharing of GST to fund important infrastructure developments to service the burgeoning export demands for Australian resources. WA points out that it receives only $0.68/$1.0 of GST collected, while the eastern seaboard States receive more than $0.90/$1.0 collected. The WA receipts are expected to fall to $0.44/$1.0 collected by 2014 under current Federal/State taxation sharing arrangements. Any redistribution will almost certainly have negative impacts on the revenue positions of both NSW and Victoria. So, stand by for a political stoush with WA in the driver seat given its importance to national developments and prosperity!
Exploitation policy. In addition, by pointedly saying "keep your hands off Woodside", the current WA State Government has clearly put a shot across the bows of the international energy companies, directing them to focus on exploitation of the onshore and offshore resources in the State and to keep the Commonwealth Government's best interests in mind rather than pursuing their own global resource exploitation strategies. This is paramount to WA and infers that the strong working relationships between the State Government and Woodside will only be maintained with an independent Woodside.
In addition, the State Government is clearly signalling to the Federal Government to act in the national interest. Given the Australian resource prospectively, globally competitive PSC, adherence to "rule of law", environmental credentials, strong economic performance and democratic processes, it is a strong call by the WA Government to put the both the Federal Government and international companies on notice that Australia's energy developments can be pursued with capable local ownership and that resource exploitation is not necessarily a "poker game" for international companies to optimise their respective global investment portfolios !
Gas as an energy source. The overwhelming focus of the Conference was the confirmation of the emergence of gas (conventional gas and non conventional CSG and shale gas) as the dominant future fuel source. There was limited discussion of the widening gap created by declining domestic liquids production and the impact of this on the country's balance of payments. The dominance of gas occurs on the West Coast with existing and new LNG projects as well as the emergence within five years of 2 to 4 LNG projects at Gladstone, Queensland.
Gas also has the advantage of being a transition fuel to green clean low carbon emissions fuels in the next 50 years given its low greenhouse gas emissions compared to coal used for power generation.
Format. The Conference plenary session format reflected the leadership role the industry is taking by focussing on safety and risk management at all levels of the industry to identify and mitigate the risks. Industry is also pushing technology as a key driver to deliver projects to its customers in more challenging work environments and by using nonconventional resources. It is in agreement with the Federal Government's position of a single National Safety Regulator, notwithstanding the States' opposition to such a safety authority.
Technology. A key plenary session was the focus on the critical importance of technology in commercialising all forms of resources and the "value-add" to processing of gas to liquids. Technology has changed exploitation practices to enhance recovery of resources and emissions abatement, commercialise non-conventional resources, improve hydrocarbon processing and make changes to transportation. This brings huge benefits to safety and management of the environment.
The improvement in technology is not well appreciated by the community, however people just expect it to be there and working at no cost! The Shell presentation brought this into sharp relief when the company indicated that Qatar GTL project took about 40 years of research (in Holland, Shell employs 60 FTE specialist engineers and scientists working in R&D at an annual cost of US 1.0 billion), commercialisation and construction at cost of US$ 18 billion for 140,000 boepd starting in 2011. Technology is a long-term and expensive commitment and the industry needs to do a much better job in communicating its importance to achieving superior outcomes for all stakeholders as it justifies its right to have a social contract to operate.

The 10th annual Good Oil Conference (GOC) had a series of very clear messages:-
1. The steady rise of unconventional gas and oil resources as the new Holy Grail for enterprise value given
a. The market confidence in this resource as a secure future energy resource to offset diminishing conventional resources.
b. The advances in technology to lower risks of exploitation.
c. Enhanced resource value with associated liquids ,
d. Its sheer size and ability to transform a company.
2. China is the big issue in terms of it economic performance as it is a key component in the engine of global growth. There are GDP growth risk concerns about the Chinese economy as the key drivers for its exceptional performance during the GFC were its strong export performance, strong private sector demand and a high level of Government stimulus. There key factors are not performing strongly in 2010 and there is a debate about the need now for a significant Government spending stimulus to remove the uncertainly of the economic growth in China and keep it performing strongly. A delay in the timing of this Chinese Government spending stimulus as a result of this debate being bogged down in policy paralysis is a real risk to the global economy and the aspirations of other foreign Governments to reflate their economies- reduce deficits and unemployment.
Oil demand in China will be sustained (see point 5 below) but the Government is re-balancing the energy mix to increase gas consumption to about 35% within the decade.
3. Presentations indicated that the Australian SME companies have largely repaired their balance sheets and repositioning themselves for growth opportunities with more balanced exploration areas and play types in their exploitation portfolios.
4. The SME explorers are looking to growth opportunities outside Australia/Asia to Africa and Eastern Europe and not the USA. The Australian hard rock miners are showing the way in Africa already with 170 companies there now in 500 projects notwithstanding the commercial risks and infrastructure issues in a large number of these countries. It will be interesting to see how the Australian energy SMEs get involved to explore in these parts of Africa.
5. Investment decisions on exploitation budgets for 2011 onwards will be underpinned by oil supply/demand fundamentals favouring an oil price circa $US 80-95/bbl into 2011 firming annually thereafter as demand in China and India stretch supply. As a result there will also be significant oil price volatility over the next 5+ years as the supply /demand equations tries to rebalance. Oil demand globally is estimated to increase at a rate of 2.2% p.a. until 2040 mainly driven by energy demand in China(In China an estimated 380 million cars in 2030 from 80 million in 2010); this supply demand scenario with price volatility is a continuing theme from these Australian energy conferences. However, the community at large are generally unaware of these long term impacts particularly on future bowser price pressure and its impact on the family budget.
6. The exchange rate A$: US$ will not work in favour of the industry in revenue terms as the strong A$ price compared the US $ is likely to remain in the high 90s range for the foreseeable future given the strong Australia trade fundamentals underpinned by the resources boom in China (both in terms of volume and commodity prices) and the USA Federal Government working to reduce the US to improve their export competitiveness.
7. A theme from the presentations was that SME explorers on the East Coast are looking to unconventional gas ( CSG, shale gas) for the LNG markets as a means to attract shareholder value to their share price given the perceived reserve shortfall of about 20TCF( Bow Energy estimate) over the life of the 4 LNG projects at Gladstone. It is likely there will continued M&A activity with these SMEs as their resource thresholds increase to levels where they will be attractive to a corporate play from the Majors. Developments in the LNG export markets will continue to attract wide attention given their significant impacts on the local and national economies both in economic and environmental terms.

Geoffrey R Widmer
CEO
Palliser Group
61-3-9819-3995(p)
Email: gwidmer@palliser.com.au
www.palliser.com.au
15th September 2010

Disclaimer:
The preceding commentary is a complication of views and data expressed at the 7th-8th September 2010 Good Oil Conference expressed by the various participants. The Palliser Group has not verified these facts as presented to the conference and has not made independent enquiries as to the validity of the statements made or of the data presented. The Palliser Group recognises the authors of the various views as detailed in the Good Oil Conference Program.

1. Observations from the Cartagena Conference.
The Conference week from the 22nd to 25th June in Cartagena included a variety of energy activities-
i. The awarding of petroleum exploitation licences conducted by the ANH (National Administration of Hydrocarbons) through a transparent bidding process called The Open Round (TOR) demonstrated the maturity, sophistication and advances of the Colombian economy and the political structure.
ii. The WPC regional meeting focusing on the challenges (commercial, technical) for the developing sustainable energy resources for the region through potential sharing of infrastructure.
iii. Issues related to investment oil and gas developments, use of technology, environment, transportation and the opportunities for non conventional oil and gas.
These events created a very positive attitude to the recent achievements in Colombia under the current Uribe Government. The attendance of President Uribe and President elect Santos (who will take over in August 2010) to give presentations on their government's achievements and the policies to be followed under the new Santos Government, underline the central importance of the energy exploitation to the Colombian economy. These include provision of a vehicle to expand the economy, improve employment and training opportunities and provide the government with resources to improve social, education and health infrastructure in Colombia. Overall these are critical steps to improving long-term security and prosperity.
The strong regional representation from participants such as former President Lagos of Chile, the heads of the key NOCs from Peru, Brazil, Panama, Mexico and their respective administrative organisations in the Latin America region and the Norwegian President of Petroteam A.S., gave this conference the gravitas of the importance of energy developments in Latin American and the central role that Colombia will play in these regional developments.

"There were 3 elephants in the room at the APPEA Conference but were there really four?"
1. Observations from the APPEA Conference
a.3 Elephants in the room- Super Profits Resource Tax (SPRT), Safety and LNG.
i. SPRT and Safety. At the start of the Conference, "2 elephants in the room" were bluntly established by the Federal Minister Hon. Martin Ferguson- super profits tax and safety. The Government saw them as critical to its performance credentials;
SPRT: From the Government's perspective the profits tax is going to happen so the industry had better get involved and talk with the Government about its implementation. Matters surrounding the insidious nature of this tax, including its retrospectivity and the failure of government to understand risk-reward issues in resources exploitation as well as a need to address the question "why not use the existing PRRT as a basis for discussion?" are likely to be canvassed in the media by all stakeholders.
Safety: from Government's perspective, this referred to the Montara oil spill and the industry needs to take note that following the tabling of the Montara report, there will be legislated change in offshore operations based on its recommendations. This will include the formation of a Federal National Regulator, already foreshadowed by the Minster, covering offshore petroleum activities and navigation.
Did the industry hear this commentary above the consternation of the SPRT? At the Darwin APPEA (as reported in the APPEA Darwin Palliser Report) Minister Ferguson gave a clear signal that retention leases must be worked for hydrocarbon development or run the risk of losing them. This message was largely glossed over, although the Browse Basin LNG participants did see the strength of his resolve. Safety, including the environment, is very much a Federal Government focus especially with the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico swaying public opinion. The industry will need to be on the "front foot" as the recommendations and legislation are rolled out.

ii. LNG: As the conference themes developed, a "3rd elephant in the room" emerged around gas and its importance to the Australia economy - the dominance of LNG to Australia. It became apparent that collectively (offshore WA and CSG in Queensland) potentially there will be 15 LNG projects by 2018, costing some A$220 billion involving 55,000 construction jobs and around 22,000 permanent jobs utilising about 460 TCF over 20+ years. The financial flow-through to the economy for the A$40 billion Gorgon/Jansz/Io project alone over its 20 year field life is estimated at A$50 Billion in local goods and services and A$60.0 billion tax receipts.
This massive development schedule to 2018 followed by operations for a further 30 years beyond the construction phase is a long-term commitment beyond the normal government election cycles of 2 to 4 years.

The 2008 APPEA was held against a backdrop of unprecedented activity in the Industry with over 2500 delegates attending. The mood reflected rapidly changing oil prices, resources shortages impacting on cost escalation and completion of projects and a new Federal Labour Government. What did we learn? The Plenary sessions focused on the growth and importance of natural gas - especially LNG, the growth of supply and demand til 2030 and the resource constraints impacting the industry. All great stuff, but the Plenary sessions were mediocre and the Conference lacked impact.

Director Due Diligence-How to assess this critical role in your business portfolio by considering the following points!
1. Why should I be a director? After you have had your ego polished and the stars are still sparkling in your eyes post the offer to be on a board, ask yourself the critical question-

Why am I considering the role as a board director?

Is it just my ego talking? Am I just a "figure head"?

Seems like a good idea to earn some easy board fees without too much work but not worried about my lack of skills or responsibilities?

Fits into my schedule without too much effort?

Have a genuine interest in the business/industry and can make a contribution to its growth and profitability? Could provide capital to the business?

As I professional investor, does this opportunity align with my objectives?

What role do I want to focus on in the Board as I believe and have experience in the products and the industry?

Are there any conflicts with my current activities?

It is an important question to answer as being a non-executive director can be a very rewarding experience but is a very serious position with many responsibilities and pitfalls if you don't understand the business, its strategy and solvency!
When events turn against the company, ignorance of the facts and statements "I did not understand the business or my responsibilities when I joined or why I signed that cheque" are not acceptable to the regulators. You need to be informed!